A poor prospect of Aman harvest is already having its adverse impact on the grain markets with many apprehending a fresh price spiral of rice, market sources told The Daily Star.

Repeated and prolonged floods that stalked many Aman-growing areas during the monsoon severely affected its cultivation. Of the three types of staple rice in Bangladesh, Boro accounts for 49 percent of net rice output, Aman 44 percent and Aus seven percent.

The government's food planning unit could not yet fix a target for this year's Aman output as official field level projections kept changing repeatedly.

The Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) recently downsized its Aman production target from 1.28 crore tonnes to 1.23 crore tonnes and then to 1.17 crore tonnes. The ministries of food and agriculture now foresee an Aman output of 1.08 crore to 1.13 crore tonnes.

Official sources confirmed loss of Aman crop due to the floods at around 10 percent. Unofficial reports from business organisations and The Daily Star district correspondents however said the loss would be around 15 percent.

Officials admitted that in certain areas the loss could be 15 percent. They pointed out there could have been more losses had the floods not spared many of the areas with 'HYV Aman (high-yielding variety) concentration' in greater Dinajpur, Naogaon and Joypurhat.

The country experienced heavy rain and floods during end-July to mid-August, and again in mid-September, which hampered timely planting of rain-fed Aman crop (harvested in late autumn). Farmers tried to offset the crop losses by planting late season low-yielding varieties but with only limited success.

Furthermore, the early season Aus rice was also damaged due to an early monsoon, coinciding with harvesting.

An agriculture expert said proper management of fertiliser and irrigation for Boro cultivation now going on in full swing could help recover Aus and Aman losses to some extent.

Our Rangpur Correspondent Rafiq Sarkar reported that in wholesale and retail markets in Rangpur, Lalmonirhat, Dinajpur, Thakurgaon and Panchagarh districts, coarse rice is selling at Tk 1,275 to Tk 1,300 an 80-kg bag as against Tk 1,200, and fine rice at Tk 1,375 to Tk 1,400 a bag as against Tk 1,300 to Tk 1,320 two weeks ago.

There is a wide gap between the price of Aman rice and Aman paddy.

Some rice dealers of Badorganj in Rangpur said supply of Aman paddy in the markets is very low. Apprehending a scarcity of rice, most farmers want to keep their paddy reserved to meet their own needs.

Massive pest attacks on transplanted Aman have resulted in low yield of rice in eight northern districts this season. Many farmers did not get even one third of the normal yield.

Sources at DAE Rangpur regional office said about nine lakh hectares of land in eight northern districts were brought under Aman cultivation this season with a target of 20 tonnes of paddy but the harvest could be hardly seven lakh tonnes due to the pests attacks.

Sheikh Kashem, a rice miller at Mahiganj in Rangpur, said some traders are stocking Aman paddy for higher profit in future. Thus paddy supply to the millers has almost stopped resulting in price spiral of rice, he added.

A report from our Rajshahi Corespondent Anwar Ali said that due to floods and pest attacks, the output of transplanted Aman could fall by up to 35 percent in the 16 northern districts where about 30 percent of the crop has been harvested.

Agriculture officials in Rajshahi and Rangpur zones predicted a production fall by more than 11 lakh tonnes from the targeted 46 lakh tonnes.

Field level agriculture officials however apprehend the output is unlikely to cross 30 lakh tonnes as the floods reduced the Aman acreage to 17 lakh hectares from 18 lakh hectares, and there are also problems of 'chita' (unfilled grains).

The Daily Star Correspondent Amanur Aman reports from Kushtia that 10 southwestern districts are also experiencing 10 to 15 percent fall in Aman production.

According to DAE estimates, Aman yield will decline by 52,220 tonners in Jessore district, 87,504 tonnes in Jhenidah, 75,981 tonnes in Magura, 40,254 tonnes in Narail, 12,945 tonnes in Khulna, 42,660 tonnnes in Bagerhat, 30,885 tonnes in Satkhira, 4,050 tonnes in Kushtia, 13,845 tonnes in Chuadanga and 1,005 tonnes in Meherpur.