Whosoever is at the helm, it will be a hard choice for the Congress government whether it will submit to the blackmail by the big business and political right or keep its promises to the poor who played a significant role in Congress' victory. But it also has track record of succumbing to the temptation of wooing the rich. Moreover it was the Congress government which indeed initiated India's neo-liberal economic reforms. Yet, according to the analysts, there are differences between Narasima Rao variety of Congress the government of which introduced the reforms and the Congress leading the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The latter is a varied, disparate and quite possibly unwieldy coalition and will be disinclined to ignore the concerns of its allies and partners. A significant support will be accorded to the government by strong Left forces which already indicated that they would oppose the disinvestment of any state-owned units.

The India-watchers unanimously agree that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) floundered mainly because far too many Indians were excluded from India's 'economic success story' which the NDA prided on. The country's dispossessed lot could hardly draw any comfort from the ruling coalition's 'feel good' election refrain. It failed to have resonance beyond the middle classes. India's electorate suffered too much hunger and bleakness to be enchanted with 'India shining'.

The NDA was badly routed in Andhra Pradesh, the stronghold of one of its wily architects -- Chandra Babu Naidu -- who hobnobbed with Bill Clinton and Bill Gates and earned the celebrity of being 'Computer Guru' because beyond the perimeter of Cyberabad, created by him, poverty, hunger and illiteracy still flourished.

Even if Manmohan Singh, widely respected architect of India's free market economy, is ostensibly resurrected to allay the fear of big businesses and in the process takes the place of reluctant Sonia Gandhi as India's prime minister, doubts abound if he can match his highly charismatic predecessors of Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and hold together the disparate coalition. Ms Sonia Gandhi was seldom rated any high for state craft and had been considered an ingenue in India's turbulent politics. But her deft leadership of the party, particularly her performance in 14th Lok Sabha election changed all those notions. Not only she rescued the Congress after it was almost written off and thought to be unelectable, she elevated herself to a level of statesmanship India had been in dire need of.

But by declining India's coveted prime ministership after she was unanimously elected the leader of Congress parliamentary party Ms Sonia Gandhi plunged her party and indeed the whole Indian nation into a deep political crisis. Even if the episode surrounding her refusal to head the government still remains a mystery it however remains an inherent crisis for India's democratic pluralism and secularism. There could have been several factors working behind Sonia's reluctance to take the top job which are mostly subject to conjectures. But there was something ominous in continuing crusade against Ms Gandhi and her Italian antecedents by BJP even after its electoral defeat. The big businesses could show their hand and the political right could still bare their fangs. BJP spokesman Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi claimed that there would be nationwide turmoil when the Congress parliamentary party nominated Sonia its leader. Ms Uma Bharti said in a menacing tone, "If a persons of foreign origin as prime minister becomes privy to all top secret documents... it will pose a grave danger to national security."

Few know what really transpired between Ms Gandhi and Indian President when she met the latter after being elected the Leader of Congress Parliamentary Party and why later refused to accept the Prime Minister's office. Some observers, however, pointed out how the RSS, the ideological fountain-head of the BJP had deeply penetrated India's security apparatus, and the resistance to Ms Gandhi from the intelligence establishment could not be ruled out. Entirely from Sonia's side the overriding consideration appears to have been to ensure a smooth term in the office for the Congress which she so painstakingly built up from the ruins. The prospects of better future for India's deprived classes and the religious minorities to which Sonia had been deeply committed were at the doorstep. Also the beginning of the end for resurgence of a malignant Hindutva was within reach. She wanted to safeguard them through her renunciation of power -- strangely in a Gandhian tradition.

Sonia's odds which is far from over clearly showed looming dangers ahead. Even the world powers did not play up, sensed a 'left leaning' in Sonia in Nehru-Gandhi tradition and remained cool to Sonia's ascendancy. She knew well that her 'foreign' origin would have continued to provide the rightwing revivalists with ammunition to attack the Congress and cramped the working of its government. It is in this light that Sonia's renuncia-tion of power and future of secular democratic India will have to be viewed.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.