The BJP-led government has ruled the country for about six years in total. Under its administration, India's economic gains has been enormous, militarily it has become more powerful with strategic relationship with the US and Israel in defence cooperation. India has become the 7th largest exporter of food grains in the world. It is the third largest Asian economy. It has paid US$3 billion of its loans to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, politely declined aid from a string of countries, and wrote off debts owed to India by several poor countries. India's foreign exchange reserves crossed over US$ 100 billion mark. Furthermore, it has in many ways mended its relations with China and Pakistan. This is India's profile that the BJP wanted to project, conveniently ignoring that one third of its total population (1.2 billion) are steeped in extreme poverty.

Observers believe that in the light of the "fantastic record" of the government, the "Young Turks" of the BJP persuaded the Prime Minister to call the election six months ahead as they predicted that the BJP-led government would cruise to power like "a knife through butter". As the election continued in phases, exit polls indicated that the Congress party was catching up with the BJP. However, the BJP stalwarts were confident of their victory.

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee (79) took the defeat stoically saying: " Victory and defeat are a part of life which are to be viewed with equanimity", while the Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi ( 58) assured the nation that " the Congress party would ensure a strong, stable and secular government". On foreign policy with Pakistan, she reportedly stated that " we have all along been saying a dialogue must be initiated with Pakistan."

An obvious question is: why did the BJP-led alliance lose the election? Many factors have played a role but five in particular may deserve mention.

First, economic growth in India did not trickle down to the poor. Economic growth is largely measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) whereas social development is measured in terms of overall improvement of quality of life of all sections of people in the country.

Development can be measured by asking three simple questions. What has been happening to poverty? What has been happening to unemployment? What has been happening to inequality among people within the country? In India, under the BJP-led coalition government, all three of these criteria have not declined from high levels and accordingly, one may conclude that the economic boom under the government has left the poor out in the cold.

India has predominantly an agrarian economic base. Agriculture constitutes 70 per cent of India's GDP and the majority of hard-working peasants in rural areas saw no tangible improvement of quality of their life. It is the poor people who become conscious of their empowerment during election-time and register their approval or disapproval regarding performance of a government. It appears that they have voted against the BJP-led government because the economic growth has not benefited them. It benefited business and middle class, the greatest supporters of BJP, who reportedly, "stayed home".

Second, the ill-conceived election campaign-slogan of BJP "India shining" was not only been counter-productive but also damaged the profile of the BJP. Former BBC India correspondent Mark Tully reported his personal assessment in the following words:

" Nowhere in the country did I find anyone who believed their India was 'shining', as the BJP claimed…That slogan will undoubtedly return to haunt the BJP for many years."

Tully was right. To poor people, India was not 'shining' at all, rather it was in 'darkness'. Furthermore, majority of voters knew that the government spent taxpayer's money spreading the wrong message. It seemed that the campaign slogan was a cruel joke in a nation where a third of people ( more than 300 million) still live on less than US$ 1 a day and human development indices are largely appalling. One peasant reportedly hit the nail to the campaign by saying : " how can exchange of emails by computers move the country forward when we struggle to meet our daily basic needs?

The campaign slogan of BJP is similar to that of "Development Decade" used in 1968 during the term of dictator President Ayub Khan of Pakistan and soon after he had to resign. There is a saying that if you squeeze a lemon too hard, it becomes bitter. Similar effect occurred with the campaign slogan of the BJP.

Third, it appears that majority of minority community ( Muslims and Christians) did not vote for the BJP. The BJP's Hindutva doctrine has put off the minorities and they have supported a secular government to return under the Congress party. The followers of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangstha (RSS) and Vishawa Hindu Parishad (VHP), closely linked with the BJP, have been publicly pushing to build a temple on the site of the demolished Babri mosque in Ayodhya, to the consternation of Muslims. Furthermore, the communal riot in Gujarat two years ago that killed about 2,000 Muslims while the Modi BJP state government stood by, has further alienated the majority of Muslims from the BJP. Many Christians were also victimised by the militants of RSS and a few years ago, in Orissa, a Christian priest and his son were killed.

Fourth, the continued attack of BJP leaders on Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin appears to have been boomeranged. Ordinary people do not care about the Italian origin of Sonia Gandhi because India is a multi-lingual and multi-religious country. A Tamil or Telegu- speaking Indian from the South who marries a northern Punjabi or Kashmiri, has to communicate in English with each other. In such cases, each family is almost a foreigner to each other in their own country.

In the light of the above social matrix, Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin did not become an election issue for ordinary people. After all, Sonia Gandhi, married in 1968 to late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi has been an Indian citizen since 1983. She belongs to Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and their son Rahul Gandhi and daughter Priyanka's participation in election had boosted the morale and popularity of the Congress party. ( Rahul won Amethi seat with majority of more than 100, 000 votes). The election results show that still the Gandhi name can pull massive popularity with ordinary people.

Finally, the "Young Turks" of BJP including some of the young Ministers were perceived to be arrogant and supremely confident of BJP's victory. The BJP candidates were touted as vote-catching statesman-politician and they took the electorate for granted. They sent text message through mobile phones to voters, ignoring totally the fact that large number of voters does not have mobile telephones.

Furthermore, they did not realise that the government had pursued "anti-people economic" policies with its programme of reforms that benefited middle and rich classes. India's poor people were intelligent and smart enough to let anyone take them for granted. There is a saying of Abraham Lincoln that "you can't fool all the people all the time".

Reactions
A sample of reaction of people on the street on the outcome of election has been reported in the BBC and the following comments are interesting.

Rati Lal Kala, a Congress supporter, said : " They said she (Sonia Gandhi) is a foreigner, but the people have given them a reply". Surinder Kumar, an auto-rickshaw driver, stated: " The Congress party will definitely work for people like us, though I did not expect their victory." Aziz, a voluntary worker, reacted and said : " The people have given a reply to the BJP for following the politics of division between communities. How can things improve when there is so much of insecurity on all fronts?"

Pareshbhai Parmar, a taxi driver said : " The BJP lost because it was not able to deliver goods to a poor man. How can one 'feel good' when the government decides to make cell (mobile) phones cheaper and petrol dearer ?" Manish Doshi, a student activist, stated :

" The BJP fell flat because of its wrong policies in the state and also the attitude of chief minister Narendra Modi ( Gujarat state) towards the people. He should not have used the language he used during the campaign when he made references to the Congress leader Sonia Gandhi and her son."

All these statements reflect disappointment, resentment and anger toward the BJP and confidence in the Congress party. It is a surprise that the political workers and leaders of the BJP did not pick up the "political pulse" of majority of people.

Conclusion
The unexpected success of the Congress led by Sonia Gandhi constitutes a huge political metamorphosis in India. Political observers believe that a stable coalition with the support of the leftist parties is likely to emerge soon in New Delhi. On 15th May, the Congress parliamentary party elected Sonia Gandhi as its leader, effectively securing her position as the Prime Minister.

A big challenge awaits the new Prime Minister in a country populated by more than one billion people. The economic reforms that began under the Congress party in 1991 are likely to continue but priorities may get redesigned to ensure that benefits are percolated down to the poor.

It may be recalled that Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India and Sonia Gandhi's grand father-in-law, in his book titled " The Discovery of India" (1946) rejected injection of Hindu nationalism in politics and wrote that religion-based politics " is a reversion to some medieval conception which cannot be fitted into the modern world". That view was expressed more than 57 years ago and the BJP wanted to continue Hindu religion- based politics in India at the beginning of the 21st century. The overwhelming majority of people decisively and rightly rejected the BJP's Hindutva ideology and they deserve commendation and congratulation for their decision.

By all accounts, the majority of Indians are decent, tolerant, secular- minded. It is hoped that the Congress-led government will be able to undo the poisonous impact of the religion-based politics on the Indian body politics by the BJP.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.