Sudan: A conflict in the making

As the international community remains focused on the conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan, the plight of another nation remains marginalised and almost unnoticed. The civil war in Sudan has lasted almost 20 years, claiming approximately two million lives, and leaving many more to seek shelter in neighbouring countries as refugees. Recently, a comprehensive peace deal was signed by the Sudan Government and rebels. But peace is fragile in an ever changing world and the shadows of Sudan's violent past seem to once again emerge to destabilise its present and threaten its future.

In 1952, Sudan was to be granted freedom based on an agreement between Britain and Egypt to allow a referendum on independence and free elections. A year later, the newly established Sudanese House of Representatives elected the Umma (People's) Party, with Abdullah Khalil as premier. But when freedom finally came in 1956, Sudan had a new leader, Army Chief Ibrahim Abboud. It was to be a new beginning, different from the one the people had known but as time would demonstrate, far from peaceful as it had been hoped.

Sudan is a diverse country and to merely state that would be an over simplification of a nation burdened with contradictions and complications in diversity. The North of Sudan is predominantly Muslim and hold the reins of political power. But the Christians and Animists in the South led by the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) under John Garang challenged this political domination, leading to the beginning of a long civil war. It remains unclear as to whether the South desired autonomy from the Muslim north or outright independence.

Every conflict, big or small, has its complications and consequences, and too often the international community gets tangled in deliberating a selfish intervention rather than seeking a solution. As a result, the international community was slow in its firm response and timely intervention in the crisis. Thus, the situation in Sudan that could have been stemmed by a swift response continued unchecked.

The leaders of North and South Sudan in between held peace talks, each time the hopes of the people were raised only to be shattered by failures. In 1972, under the new President Jafaar al-Nimeri, a settlement for peace was negotiated with the South. An 11-year period of peace followed, only to be stirred once again in 1983.

The Sudanese government had implemented stringent economic reforms to comply with IMF directives. The government had the desire to strengthen its economy, but lacked the determination to implement it. Facing pressure from some traditionalist Muslims critical to the reforms, the government decided to introduce the Islamic Sharia law to pacify the emerging dissatisfaction. The government in its eagerness to suppress the criticism of its economic reforms by some, failed to take into consideration the aspirations of many. As a result the Sharia law met with resistance in the South and soon enough the new law was abandoned. But the rebellion in the South was once again awakened.

Since independence, Sudan's political climate has been unstable and turbulent. The succession of governments and poor leadership has led to economic, political and social degradation. In the present lies the direction to the future, but for the people of Sudan, their present was in a shambles and the direction to the future bleak and uncertain. However, when General Omar al-Bashir's government came to power in 1993, it would prove to be different from its predecessors in resilience and a clear ideology.

The new government had close ties to the National Islamic Front led by Sheikh Hassan al-Turabi. Therefore it was not surprising that in 1991, al-Bashir's government once again introduced the controversial Sharia law.

The political situation in the south was also changing. The SPLA that began as a united front to combat the north divided to form two groups -- one remaining loyal to John Garang, the veteran SPLA leader, and the other loyal to the breakaway leader Riek Macahar. But the growing Islamic conservatism of al-Bashir's government allowed SPLA to cultivate support from Uganda, Egypt, Ethopia and the US. Whereby, SPLA continued to pose a serious challenge to al-Bashir's government.

The alliance of al-Bashir and al-Turabi seemed strong on the surface to meet the challenges posed by the South. National elections were held in 1996 and al-Bashir's government was able to win comfortably. But Sudan's internal turmoil had begun to create external concerns. The threat of terrorists using Sudan as a base for unfavourable and undesirable activities led the US government to launch a missile attack. A legitimate pharmaceutical plant was destroyed and the controversy led the US to end operations in Sudan quickly. But from it surfaced a power struggle between al-Bashir and al-Turabi. At the end, al-Bashir came out the victor, winning a second term in office, al-Turabi went into political oblivion after two years in prison.

Things never remain constant and with change comes new twists and turns to events. The US once again attempted to bring peace in Sudan. This was propelled by the fact that right-wing Christians exert greater influence in the present US government and are concerned by what they see as prejudice against Christians in South Sudan. The new war on terrorism has also brought Sudan under scrutiny as a refuge for terrorist. And then there is the mounting pressure from Human Rights campaigners

Finally, in 2002, the Machakos Protocol was signed in Kenya. Compromises were made and the existing realities accepted to some extent. The south would accept the establishment of the Sharia law in the north and be allowed to seek self-determination after a six year period. The bitterness from years of conflict cannot be erased in a few weeks. Therefore, even though the peace process continued to evolve, hostilities did not totally cease.

A year later, after much talks and international intervention the government and the SPLA agreed to share the oil wealth and integration of troops in some areas. At present, the deal also encompasses the sharing of non-oil wealth. As the curtains fall on one crisis, another has begun to develop. The rebellion in predominantly Muslim West Darfur has already created 100,000 refugees in neighbouring Chad and left many dead. A nation devastated from one war is nowz about to enter another. How long will it be before the international community is once again stirred to action to prevent another long drawn-out civil war? Until then the people of Sudan stand at the edge of uncertainty where the hopes of the present fade into the past and future seems even more unpredictable than before.

Fatima Chowdhury is a Calcutta-based freelance journalist.