Will Sri Lanka plunge into bigger crisis?

It is a fast developing situation in Sri Lanka, the small but resourceful south Asian country, which has long been convulsed by a civil war. But silver lining had emerged in recent times for a possible negotiated settlement of the crisis involving the minority Tamils concentrated in the northern region of the country. The trouble this time has not come from the Tamils but from within the government, where a "co-habitation" authority exists. Rather paradoxically, here is a government where the president and the prime minister are from rival political platforms, and more interestingly, none is toothless -- both yield considerable powers. It is neither a presidential nor a parliamentary form of democracy. The government is run by the cabinet headed by the prime minister with majority support in parliament while the presidency can suspend or scrap the parliament and dismiss the government and ministers showing a thumb to the elected prime minister. It is against this background that president Chandrika Kumaratunga is now in serious loggerheads with prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe's government.

She declared a state of emergency, which was later withdrawn, suspended the parliament till a specific time and dismissed three key ministers -- heightening her tensions with the prime minister, who was at that time away to United States for talks with president George W. Bush. The developments have come as serious setbacks to a country which is striving for a settlement with the Tamil militants and the efforts made some headway even though peace remains a distant achievement. The government-Tamil talks did make some progress but were then suspended due to differences, but then again ground was getting conducive for resumption. It is at this time the president-prime minister crisis came to a head throwing the peace process into uncertainty on one hand and accentuating the political crisis on the other. However the president-prime minister rivalry is nothing new and has only exacerbated.

In fact, this was expected as tough measures from the president was anticipated since she largely disapproved the peace process with the Tamils and accused Ranil's government of adopting soft stance against the militants. But the prime minister turned the table on the president, saying he received the mandate in the parliamentary polls in favour of peace with the rebels. At the heart of the trouble is the rivalry between the two leaders and their political forums. Chandrika was elected president for a six-year term beating Ranil, who later won the parliamentary polls defeating president's "Freedom Party" and its allies. The Co-habitation government is working somehow but it was a matter of time when the problems would explode. The president could never reconcile with a situation where her nemesis is in control of the things while she definitely enjoys certain powers. The current crisis is a logical development out of their differences.

Norway was taking fresh initiative to get the stalled Sri Lankan peace efforts back to negotiation table. The Tamil rebels suspended the peace dialogue in April this year after six rounds that made some headway towards a negotiated solution of the civil war. The rebels complained against the Colombo government of slow implementation of the understanding reached towards settling the crisis and consequently the dialogue suffered badly raising fears of collapse of the process which was so assiduously nurtured. Very recently, two sides narrowed down the differences at least to resume the talks after the Tamils submitted new proposals.

The hardening of stance of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had followed a recent international conference on Sri Lanka in Japan when donors and others made substantial commitments for rebuilding the country afflicted by long civil war. The Tigers did not attend the Tokyo meeting although they actively participated in the earlier peace conferences in different countries. The government-LTTE talks were made possible from early last year when Oslo intensified its mediation to resolve the Sri Lankan imbroglio through dialogue between the warring groups. The conflict has taken huge toll on both sides and once it appeared that the country was bleeding to white as the full blown war continued unabated. But the Norwegian efforts, although often ran into occasional trouble, bore fruits as two sides sat to discuss the issue after plenty of preparations.

The first meeting took place in Bangkok mid last year, which was marked by remarkable progress since the LTTE agreed to give a major concession -- abandoning the demand for a separate sovereign country. The government side also reciprocated by taking series of conciliatory measures and all these made things bright, giving the impression that a permanent settlement of the civil war may not be too difficult despite the fact that the task in hand was quite contentious. However, the Tigers boycotted the Tokyo meeting protesting government failures to accept a demand that Tigers should have charge of provincial administration in their region. Later, prime minister Wickremasinghe announced readiness to accept the main part of the demand which removed fears of continued boycott of the talks. But president Chandrika has always been against much concessions to the rebels.

The rivalry between president and the prime minister continued to mar the peace process. President's Peoples Alliance (PA) had failed to make progress on peace when it was in power and evidently it cannot relish a situation where the rival's government succeeds. Chandrika enjoys some powers as the president under the constitution and remains at the helm for six-year term regardless of the outcome of the parliamentary polls. As such, it is unlikely that she would not at all use these powers against the political foes. She did but had to roll back from emergency declaration sensing that this may cause trouble for her. The prime minister has received an endorsement of his government from most foreign powers including the US and this is one reason that emergency was withdrawn coinciding Ranil's return to the country. The peace process has been largely welcomed at home and abroad.

The president is clearly seeking to arouse majority Sinhalese sentiment against the Tamils on the peace process, accusing Ranil's government of turning "blind eye" to majority mood. She has also termed the latest proposal given by the rebels to resume talks as amounting to bifurcation of the country. But the prime minister says most countrymen want a settlement of the civil war which has continued for 20 years with no victory in sight claiming more than 60,000 lives. It is believed that the opinion is strong that Sri Lanka can not afford any longer the war to go since the nation is paying too dearly. The suspension of parliament just before the presentation of the budget has not been liked by most Lankans. The prime minister, on return to the country from Washington, has stressed on the need for the parliament to meet as early as possible. He is asking for this since he knows that he has majority in the house and is also demanding return of three key portfolios including the defence which the president herself has taken over. On the other side of the fence, the Tamil Tigers, who are no longer demanding straight independence, are watching this situation and say they are patient and in no mood to resume the hostilities. Needless to say they are favourably disposed to the prime minister.

It is implausible to think that the current president-prime minister crisis will be resolved easily since Chandrika will remain in her position till December, 2005 while the present parliament has also spent less than half of its tenure. However, it is possible that the president may dissolve the house and call fresh elections as a last resort. However, she may not be too keen for snap elections as most people favour peace and support Ranil government. The prime minister is not averse to fresh polls, which may be one of the options for resolving present crisis in Sri Lanka. But the bottom line is that the country should not be allowed to be back to "square one" on the vital issue of peace to end the devastating civil war.

The rivalry in extreme form between the two political forums of Sri Lanka is proving suicidal for the island nation. The civil war has already reversed its expected progress. Political unrest or instability would only put further pressure on the country.

The country is divided on the present crisis but tough steps by the president, although permitted by the constitution, are largely seen as stemming from personal and political jealousy and expediency, and not for national interests.

The current situation may precipitate deeper trouble unless true spirit of "co-habitation" is demonstrated and more rationale role is expected from the president.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.