India's SC order could be blessing in disguise for BJP
India's Supreme Court's order restoring the charge of criminal conspiracy against three senior leaders of ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party—L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and federal minister Uma Bharti—in the case relating to the 16th century Babri mosque demolition case are likely to impact the country's political scenario in the run up to key elections to legislatures in a number of states in the next 18 months and the national elections in 2019.
Much will depend on if and how BJP and its political rivals use the apex court order in the political slugfest.
The apex court has ordered that the trial in the case be held on a day-to-day basis and completed in two years. The question in political circles in Delhi is will this help BJP or its rivals politically?
What if the charges against Advani, Joshi and Bharti are upheld by the trial court? What if they are absolved? the Supreme Court order has brought back to life the emotive issue of Ram temple construction in Ayodhya, which had once helped BJP as a major political force in India in 1990s.
The temple issue had lost much of its sheen over the last two decades. Secondly, the daily court hearings in the case could help the saffron party milk its pet Hindutva issue and engineer consolidation of votes ahead of legislative assembly elections in states like Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and finally the parliamentary polls in early 2019. Such a consolidation was one of the key reasons for BJP's astounding victory in recent assembly polls in India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh and adjacent state Uttarakhand.
After its win in Uttar Pradesh, BJP today is confident of handling the temple issue mainly because the recent electoral reverses have put the opposition on the defensive. BJP's rivals may not like go ballistic against the party on the temple issue. This was evident in the restraint with which main opposition party Congress reacted to the apex court ruling. The trademark aggression of Congress in seeking to put BJP on the mat on a divisive issue was missing. The party gave a carefully-worded official reaction whose gist is "let the law take its own course".
In the event of the trial court acquitting Advani, Joshi and Bharti, BJP can always hit back at the opposition parties for maligning the party and the three leaders for years. And if they are convicted, which entails a punishment of maximum of five years in jail, the party can project itself as a crusader for Hindutva cause. The real dilemma in BJP is whether or not the two-member apex court ruling Wednesday should be challenged before a bigger bench. The Central Bureau of Investigation, which probed the Babri Masjid demolition case, is a federal government agency. If it challenges the apex court ruling, the CBI has to make a U-turn on its view about the charges against the three BJP veterans and others and it will do little to help the agency's image as a non-partisan and fair body and that of the government as non-interfering in the due process of law. If the apex court ruling is not challenged, BJP and the Modi government can take the moral high ground of not interfering with the due process of law and fair investigation. There is, however, a view among a section of party men that not challenging the Supreme Court order will send out a message that it is letting down temple movement votaries at their time of crisis.
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