When Chinese dragon meets the Indian elephant!
President Xi Jinping of China just concluded a three day visit to India. The Chinese dragon came to the shores of India to meet the elephant. What has been the outcome of the visit? The world including Bangladesh is assessing this important visit and trying to see what these two giants have gained or lost. The visit itself was much anticipated. President Xi Jinping had recently come into supreme power in China and India's Prime Minister Modi had also won a whopping majority in the Lok Shoba to become a single party majority in parliament. The two leaders met each other with enough mandate from their people and powers that be within each other's country to change their bilateral relations. Both therefore came with dreams to bring in a new era of peace and prosperity.
Before we analyze the visit, we must dwell on the irritants that have been bedeviling relations between these two giants ever since the short war in 1962 when Chinese soldiers had made inroads into north east part of India and then withdrew to its position. The un demarcated international border between the two countries has been a bone of contention. Do not forget that an India China relation in pre 1962 period was that of a euphoric 'bhai-bhai' phase. But after the 1962 border war it went into a 'bye-bye 'mood. But since 1976 both the countries tried 'normalization' of relations. But it did not get off to a flying start. When Indian PM Vajpayee was in China for a 'patch up' visit, China was at that time avowed to teach its another neighbor Vietnam a 'lesson'. This was in line with what China did with India in early sixties. China also conducted a nuclear test during Indian PM Venkataraman's visit to China. In 1988, Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi made a high trajectory visit to China. For a decade relations were better as high level visits from each side brought steady progress. In 1993, there was an agreement between the two countries on the management of the border. This was followed by a seminal agreement in 1996 on military CBMs. In 2005 came the agreement on 'political parameters and guiding principles for settlement of the boundary question' which had accompanied the declaration of India and China to be 'strategic and cooperative' partners.
All these pious moves between the two giants had not in any way relieved the tensions along the border. Why was this so? Analysts say that all politico- diplomatic interaction between China and India as reflected in the documents of bilateral relationship has more to do with generalities and are all short on specifics. So the first difficulty remains the 'tangled web of intangibles' in all the agreements signed. The 2005 'strategic and cooperative partnership', spoke more about atmospherics than substantive content.
The future bilateral relationships therefore need to focus on tangibles. The boundary talks between China and India which has a 3 stage road map (moving from top down from abstract principles to parameters in specifics of territorial adjustments) will now need to be changed. There has to be a 'bottom up' approach which begins with the specifics of territorial adjustments to eventual boundary alignment.
So when the dragon came to meet the elephant last week and with all bon homie the Chinese President went first to Gujrat, the home state of Indian PM Modi, instead of India's capital Delhi, it was inconceivable to find Chinese and Indian soldiers and civilians facing each other at three points along the disputed Ladakh border. How unbelievable it was that even as the two leaders were dining and conferring about eternal peace between the two, their soldiers were confronting each other. Of course this time there was confusion of the two armies regarding the alignment of the border and the principles of water sharing of Trans Border Rivers at these critical points. The intangibles had prevailed over specifics in this high stake game.
However, both the leaders agreed in their bilateral talks in Delhi that there was urgent need to deal with specifics in the near future. The Chinese President requested Indian PM to agree to 'clarify' some ambiguities prevailing on the ground at the border. The visit however led to a number of substantive agreements on trade, investments( India will invest US$20 billion in 5 years in India mainly in its railways and infrastructure including setting up industrial parks), technology transfers and in a number of other areas. China envisioned that Chinese industries and Indian back office skills will be able to bring prosperity not only to the two countries but also to the world.
The big question that was left unanswered was the strategic one. India and China although are partners in the grouping called BRICS and India is likely to team up in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, yet how will China look at India when she increasingly tie up with the USA in order to 'contain' the rise of China in Asia ? The moot matter is whether India can live with China where she has to be on the side of USA and with China's mortal foe, Japan ? As relations become more and more complicated, and the rivalry between China and the US intensify in the Pacific and Indian oceans, where will India be ? Will all the economic and investment tie-ups between India and China work smoothly or will remain another tangle of intangible web ?
PM Modi once portrayed India-China relations as 'two bodies , but one spirit'. But as things stand today they are not as close as they should be. But what seemed to be missed out by commentators is that India China relations are based on 'hard realities'. These are alignment of views to 'global affairs', 'development goals' and 'practical needs'. Both India and China have grudged to reach out to each other. But as President Xi Jinping says 'it is candor and sincerity that can build up trust that can lead to close cooperation'.
So the dragon need to now blunt its talons and douse its fiery breadth, while the elephant will have to watch where it is stepping in the future.
The writer is a former Ambassador and a commentator on contemporary affairs. E-Mail : [email protected]
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