Sushma Swaraj's goodwill visit
THE Bangladesh foreign ministry must have heaved a sigh of relief at the end of Sushma Swaraj's 3-day visit to Dhaka. The reasons are not far to seek.
During the Indian election campaign BJP stalwarts, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had threatened that they would deport so-called “illegal Bangladeshi immigrants” living in India. Dhaka evidently was distraught that an unpleasant non-issue would probably be pushed to the fore by Delhi in its relations with Dhaka. When BJP came to power in 1998 this issue created immense strains between Dhaka and Delhi.
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Mahmood Ali told the press that the issue was not raised by the Indian external affairs minister. That, indeed, was a matter of relief.
Swaraj went through a busy schedule of meetings during the short time (June 25-27) she was in Dhaka. She has made all the vibes that would please Bangladesh. She was accompanied by a 7-member delegation which included Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh, Spokesman Syed Akbaruddin and Prio Raganathan (Joint Secretary, Bangladesh Myanmar Desk) .
Bangladesh has a number of issues to settle with India, but lately three of them have dominated Bangladesh's agenda -- Teesta river water sharing treaty; ratification of Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) and killing of Bangladeshis on the border. For the Indians, amongst others, the issues of security and connectivity continue to be paramount.
Bilateral talks at the delegation level covered all the major issues. Swaraj has assured Bangladesh that all pending issues will be resolved through discussions. She, however, did not indicate any time frame. The Teesta deal was supposed to be signed when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Dhaka in 2011. That did not happen because of opposition from Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal. The LBA also could not be ratified by the Lok Sabha during the last monsoon session (September 2013) because BJP refused to support it. Manmohan Singh's UPA government did not have the numbers to get it through the Lok Sabha.
At the press conference, Akbaruddin said that Swaraj had telephonic conversation with Mamata Banerjee before coming to Dhaka. He did not say what exactly the two leaders discussed but alluded that the process of building a consensus over the Teesta Agreement has been initiated by Delhi. Anandabazaar Potrika (June 26) from Kolkata reported that Swaraj and Mamata did have a conversation, but there was no discussion on the LBA or the Teesta deal. Mamata apparently asked Swaraj not to miss tasting the hilsha fish from Barisal or Bhola.
Given the numbers in the Lok Sabha, BJP does not need to look for support from its NDA partners to ratify the LBA or sign the Teesta Agreement. But it is unlikely that the Modi government will ignore Mamata Banerjee when dealing with Bangladesh. No wonder Swaraj did not lay out any time frame. Actually, the Indian Constitution empowers the Union government to sign international treaty with any country without involving the state governments.
Delhi knows quite well the importance of Bangladesh as a fast growing economy and a burgeoning market for India. Bangladesh also leads in some crucial social indices in South Asia, and has been making steady progress economically over the past two decades.
Trade between the two countries stood at $6.6 billion in 2013-14. India exported $6.1 billion to Bangladesh as against $462 million imports from Bangladesh. Indian exports to Bangladesh are expected to double by 2018, according to Confederation of Indian Industry. Bangladesh is also an important source of forex earning by Indians working in Bangladesh. Evidently, India would like to see politically stable Bangladesh for Indian exports and investments. As a matter of fact, Swaraj has asked Bangladesh to create a special zone for Indian businesses.
Her speech at BIISS covered all the agenda issues of the two sides. She touched upon mutually beneficial development, friendship, connectivity, regional cooperation, cultural exchanges, building relations between the two peoples, etc. The speech contained all the positive elements that Bangladesh wanted to hear.
Swaraj was particular in thanking Bangladesh for not allowing North East Indian insurgent groups any sanctuary in Bangladesh. Nevertheless, Delhi should take steps to rid the region of insurgents. Opening up of the region for Bangladeshi businesses could probably go a long way in uplifting the situation of this otherwise economically depressed area.
Swaraj's meeting with BNP chief and former prime minister Khaleda Zia is also significant. Khaleda Zia is no longer the opposition leader in the parliament. India recognises that BNP is a major party in Bangladesh.
One wonders whether the extreme right-wing BJP would eventually follow through with the statements made by Sushma Swaraj in Dhaka. The nagging feeling for a timeline on the Teesta deal and the LBA would be there till some concrete developments are made. One hopes that Modi will come to Dhaka soon, but before that he will ratify the LBA. And sign the Teesta treaty in Dhaka. That would be the proof of “goodwill” from Delhi. For the time being, Dhaka should be happy with a “good” visit, in which Swaraj expressed her “will” to take the relations between the two countries to newer heights.
The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.
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