WE are entering the final stretch of the US presidential election, to be held on November 4. At the time of writing it wasn't clear whether the first debate that is scheduled for Friday night would be held as scheduled or not due to the suggestion of the McCain camp to postpone it (as well as all electioneering) due to the economic crisis that the US is currently facing.

Nevertheless, whether they have the debate tonight (tomorrow morning, Bangladesh time) or whether the first debate will now be held instead on October 7, it is clear that there is a lot riding on the three presidential debates, and, to a lesser extent, the one vice-presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

There has been a lot of hand-wringing in liberal circles about the fact that Obama has not opened up as much of a lead as he should have given the state of the economy and the unpopularity of the incumbent Republican administration.

Various theories have been propounded as to why this is, from the fact that Obama is black, to his inability or disinclination to go for the jugular, to his lack of foreign policy credentials in increasingly anxious times, to the bounce enjoyed by the Republicans in the wake of the nomination of Sarah Palin for the vice-presidency.

These may all be factors, but the most over-riding one is simply that most American voters don't start paying much attention to the presidential race until the debates and the final month or so of the election campaign.

I have long predicted an Obama landslide, but the truth is that it is a little silly to make predictions so far from the time of the election. I may be right or I may be wrong, but the truth is that so much can happen between now and election day that such predictions are more or less meaningless.

Essentially, the election will ultimately be decided by factors that have not yet occurred or played out completely, such as what happens to the US economy between now and November 4, whether Osama bin Laden is captured in an "October surprise," and, most crucially, what happens in the debates.

I have always felt that once Americans start to pay attention that Obama would walk away with this thing, and I believe that the debates will be an important part of this process.

In US politics, each side can expect a base-line of some 40% of the vote. Even the hapless Walter Mondale bagged 41% of the popular vote in 1984. The nadir in modern times for a major party candidate and the last time any candidate got below 40 per cent was when George McGovern limped home in 1972 with some 38% of the popular vote.

In other words, the swing vote is basically 20% of the electorate. In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry 52-48, indicting that Bush won the swing vote by a 2-1 margin. In the 2000 election, the popular vote, and by definition the swing vote, was split almost evenly.

Swing voters don't start to pay attention or decide who to vote for until the final days. In electioneering parlance, they are late breakers. So it is ridiculous to expect Obama to have a consistent 10 point advantage at this stage in the race.

But now with the US economy in freefall, voters paying close attention, and the debates around the corner, we should see some movement in the numbers. Some 60 million people watched the first debate between Bush and Kerry, and there is no doubt that the debates between Obama and McCain will top that.

Skeptics point out that Obama is a poor debater (compared to his public speaking skills) and that Hillary Clinton routinely cleaned his clock during the primaries. However, this overlooks a couple of points.

The first is that McCain is no Hillary Clinton, who is indeed a fine and impressive debater. The second is that the debates between Obama and Hillary were not on policy (since there was so little difference between the two on policy), but on who would match up better against the Republicans. The coming debates will pit Obama's proposed policies against those of McCain, and this is an argument that Obama can and should win on the merits.

The expectations game will also work in favour of Obama. Whenever a young or relatively untested candidate goes up against someone who is more seasoned, what voters are looking for is to see whether he appears presidential and whether he is able to match his rival in terms of stature and gravitas.

Back in 1960, before Kennedy debated Nixon, the knock on him was that he was callow and untried. Thus, he didn't need to beat Nixon, he merely needed to demonstrate that he would be a plausible president and that he was on the same page as far as preparedness went. And this is what he managed to do.

Similarly, when Reagan faced off against Carter in 1980, the ex-actor only needed to convince Americans that he was a plausible president and that the gap between him and Carter in terms of grasp of the issues was not as great as had been surmised. Ditto for Bush against Gore in 2000.

In all these cases, the knock was that the candidate lacked stature or experience or was untested and not yet ready to be president. But when voters saw them more or less hold their own against the candidates who were meant to be more presidential and ready, that gave them a boost and allowed people to begin thinking of them in terms of the presidency.

Barring a catastrophe, this is what is likely to happen this year. As long as Obama shows that he is roughly McCain's equal in substance, then he will be fine. For many American it will be the first time they have seen him up close and under pressure, and if he appears confident and presidential, that is all they will really need to see.

Of course, I suspect and hope that he will do far better than that. I think that McCain, who is short-tempered, irascible, given to looking confused, and not really up on the issues, will look decidedly unpresidential, and that Obama has a chance of really landing a knock-out blow.

Indeed I would not be surprised if Obama succeeds in goading McCain into melting down completely, like the Jack Nicholson character in the movie A Few Good Men.

But the thing is that he does not need to. Presidential debates are typically draws or a slight points victory for one of the candidates. The dynamics of the race and of how people view the two candidates are such that a draw will suit Obama just fine.

McCain is running as the candidate of experience and sagacity and proven leadership. To make the case that Obama is unready to lead (the entire thrust of the McCain campaign thus far), it is McCain who will have to clearly outperform Obama and land a knock-out blow, and the chances of this happening seem slim.

Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.