DOMESTIC and worldwide shortage of cereal stock, and consequent price hike, has put Bangladesh, which has been a cereal importing country since 1970-71, under pressure. Normally it imports about 2 million tons of rice and wheat a year. In case of natural disaster, import goes up to about 15% of domestic demand. Two consecutive floods in 2007 and cyclone Sidr affected aman production, creating demand for import. Bangladesh imports rice from India, Thailand and Myanmar.

Near stagnation of production against increase in demand led to the depletion of rice stocks in the rice producing countries since 2000, and the move to build their own stocks has raised the price. The recent ban on export by India, Thailand, Vietnam, Egypt and Pakistan is a prelude to that effort. Price of rice around $710 t0 $1,000 per metric ton is partly a consequence of increase in prices per year during 2001-06 due to the appreciation of Asian currencies.

The price of rice imported from India has increased from $302 in September 2007 to $615 per ton in February2008. This affected import and seriously eroded the capacity of the poor to buy staple food. Bangladesh now finds it difficult to import rice to maintain stable supply at affordable prices.

The sufferings of the poor, factory workers, and low paid government employees depending on fixed income has increased manifold. Two-thirds of the households in rural areas having rice deficits are adversely affected by rising prices.

In 2007, rice price in Thailand increased by 140%, making it a global problem. Globally, food prices have increased in response to many factors, including higher energy and fertiliser prices, increased demand for bio-fuels, especially in US and Europe, and drought in Australia and some other countries.

The situation in Bangladesh calls for building up rice or cereal stock to meet the yearly deficit of 2 million tons, and more for the years with natural calamities. Finding the import difficulties one may suggest for the country to go for self-sufficiency in cereals in place of self-reliance that means producing ourselves the required amount of cereals. But the question is of immediate possibility. High rate of consumption of 166 kg of cereals per year with an increase in population by almost 2 million every year means that the country must increase its cereal production by 0.35 million tons of rice every year in addition to covering of current deficit of 2.5 million tons, through domestic production.

This means to achieve rice production growth rate of 3.5%, although the rate stagnated at 1.4% during 2000 to 2006. Looking at the present level of R&D capacity for developing high yielding technology, managing input supplies, providing diesel and electricity for irrigation, and distributing quality seeds etc., the target is hard to achieve.

At present, the latest technology available is the hybrid rice with its limitation of seed supply. Investment in R&D now may take a minimum of five years to bear result. The reduction of cereal growing areas due to river erosion, infrastructure development, industrialisation and urbanisation, human settlement development etc., to the extent of 82,000 ha per year, has to be considered.

In addition, the recent trend of growing coverage of maize, horticulture, vegetables and conversion of rice growing land for pisciculture has to be nurtured because of the demand for all these crops and fish, and the benefit derived by the farmers. Moreover, space for production of pulses, oil seeds, sugarcane, spice crops etc has to be earmarked for proper agricultural planning of the country.

Under the above circumstances, can we go for achieving self-sufficiency in cereal in the coming years unless something miraculous takes place in the related technologies? So what is the immediate alternative left? No one can deny the effort needed for attaining cereal self-sufficiency. But, along with this, appropriate approaches for reduction of dependence on rice may be considered.

BBS data indicate increased consumption of vegetables and potatoes, fish, milk, eggs and meat from 1983 to 2005, both in urban and rural areas. The recent trend of commercial cultivation of fruits like guava, mango, jujube etc. indicates increased consumption of fruits.

Other studies have indicated increased growth rate of potatoes, vegetables and fruit to the extent of 5.2%, 2.3% and 7.2%, respectively. Production of 5 million tons of potato in 2008 (some estimates say 7 million tons) has surpassed all the previous records. Experts say that the country has the potential to produce more potatoes if quality seeds, inputs and preservation facilities are provided. Happily, the country has started exporting potato to Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Middle East.

Because of rice price hike, and the price of potato being one-third of the price of rice, one suggests consumption of potato by the poor households under pressure. If the poor find the price cheaper they will automatically do it, as it happened before when people used to take sweet potatoes in rice shortage and price hike situations.

If potato is nutritious, cheaper than rice, and easy to cook, then it should not be considered for consumption as a staple food item for the poor only. Why should it be used as a vegetable and not as a staple food item, like it is many European countries? The time has come to give serious thought to gradually changing our food habit -- not to discard rice but to add potato with rice as a staple food item.

Green papaya is available year round at cheap price. One or two pieces of boiled papaya can be added to our normal everyday diet. One piece of boiled carrot can also be added. Urban people should take the lead. In urban areas, white-collar office workers have lunch of rice and curry. Can they reduce the amount of rice and add one or two boiled potatoes/sweet potatoes, one boiled carrot, one tomato, boiled green papaya and banana or other fruits -- all cheap items at present market price, and all nutritious and good for health?

A campaign for this in the print and electronic media may be a good service in this respect. Now is the appropriate time for this. This year is the best time for taking such an initiative, with rice shortage and price hike, and bumper production of potato. It calls for a new dimension to policy making in providing food security for the country.

Dr. Muhammad Solaiman is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star. He acknowledges the data and the issues taken from Dr. Mahabubur Rahman's paper on Food Security in Bangladesh: Progress, Current Crisis and Future Challenges.