Present predicaments and the way out ...
For some inexplicable reasons, there appears to be a strange sense of complacency in the government. It could be because the government-party leaders do not quite know as to what to do, and how to act. They know that they have managed to land in a situation, and it is in their selfish interest to try and continue to be there, by hook or by crook, for as long as they can. And they perhaps know that under such circumstances, the best thing to do is to feel satisfied. And with a fake sense of confidence , to show Dutch courage, and to talk loudly ,incoherently, irreverently and irrelevantly and also to act as such.
So much so that chief justice Khairul Huq, based on whose judgement the AL held the so-called elections to come to or to seize power, made a profound statement. In this country, said he, one doesn't know where the government is.
On the surface, there seems to be a lull, and this is because the nation is shocked, frustrated and almost dumb-founded to experience whatever happened on January 5, and the periods preceding and following it. This is where rule of law is being banished and democracy strangulated.
Naturally the voice of the opposition is now subdued. Logically, there is no aggressive or assertive activity on the part of the nationalists and democrats. The party in power is intentionally misinterpreting the situation as the establishment of normalcy. But this is essentially a temporary calm. For a nation, particularly Bangladesh, with its history and tradition, with the spirit of liberation movement comprising longing for democracy, rule of law, equity and equal opportunities for all, cannot wait for long under an undemocratic regime.
Moreover, in spite of government run publicity and party propaganda one cannot but see the unprecedented scale of crimes and sporadic violence, nurtured by people in power. A nation cannot bloom and progress, democracy cannot not thrive and economic activities cannot flourish under such conditions.
The looming uncertainties and absence of rule of law afflicting business and investment outlook have continued to persist with adverse implications for major performance indicators. This has significantly scaled down the over-all growth prospects. The slow-down of economic growth for the third consecutive fiscal year is likely to drag the GDP growth rate, in spite of the government claim to the contrary, below the threshold of 6 percent, as anticipated by all objective analysts.
For four consecutive months now, growth of export earnings has been declining: export growth was 3.9 % during Jan-March of FY 2014 which was 16.6 % during the first half of FY 2014 – July to December 2013. During the third quarter of FY 2014 ( Jan-Mar 2014) growth of export earnings from RMG products sharply declined to 6.8 %. Export earnings from non-RMG products declined more steeply by 8.3%, compared to the corresponding period of FY2013. Power production improved, but import of industrial machinery and materials registered substantial decline during the period, indicating low industrial investment. Collection of tax revenue by the NBR also indicates declining trends.
As the indicators related to investment failed to show signs of improvement, possibility of turnaround in the coming period looks very uncertain, and in all likelihood, would be negative. The recently published UNCTAD investment policy review indicates the position of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh as almost one of the lowest in the world. It is now only 6.5 % of the GDP whereas the average of developing countries is 25.2%, Cambodia 59.4%, Vietnam 51.6%, the Philippines 12.4%, India 12.2%, Pakistan and Srilanka 11.4%,and all SAARC countries 11.8%. This is indeed alarming. With all the political uncertainties and with a literally unelected government in the seat of power, the abysmal corruption, inadequate infrastructure facilities with deteriorating law and order situation, it is highly unlikely that unless the situation improves, the efforts made by the government to attract FDI by high level foreign visits (like the current Japan one) will bear any significant fruit.
Public investment in the form of ADP implementation has also experienced the flow and dispersal of foreign aid has alarmingly slowed down. It is often argued that some of the government agencies do not show the required interest in implementing foreign aided projects due to stringent transparency mechanism involved, rendering practice of corruption difficult. In this context, the progress of priority projects, identified by the government individually after the assumption of power in January 2014 – the Padma Bridge, Rooppur nuclear power plant , metro rail ,deep sea port, LNG terminal – all ought to be closely examined and monitored from the perspective of (a) appropriateness (b) timeliness (c)financing and (d) quality of implementation.
The awarding process of contracts should not compromise on the issue of quality and transparency, but what we see does not suggest that, awards of contracts on single-tender submission like the one recently done in the Padma bridge case, coupled with absence of competent international supervision is likely be very costly, from all points of view. In the absence of adequate foreign aid flow obtained on easy terms, utilization of local resources and high-interest government borrowing will become counter-productive.
Lack of enabling business environment in the pre-election period seriously damaged investors' and businessmen's confidence, all the world knows that the environment will not improve due to continuing political uncertainty, rather, unless an acceptable and participatory general elections is held facilitating installation of a democratically elected government, the situation will definitely worsen.
The present state of lawlessness, violation of basic human rights, political tyranny, denial of democratic practices and arbitrary mal-governance has really touched the nadir. Parliamentarian Suranjit Sen Gupta said that 'these have crossed all limits'. Corruption has become so pervasive that, leaving aside big cases like share-market plunder, public sector bank loot, Destiny, Hall-mark, Padma Bridge, and departmental sale of government properties like textile mills and industrial units, even the gold medals, awarded with a lot of fanfare to a few distinguished foreigners in recognition of their friendly role during our liberation war, have been found to be fake. This deception at the state level involved, reportedly, the concerned minister and a few officials. What a shame!
People know in details about the gruesome and barbaric murders in Narayangunj , Laxmipur, Feni and many other places. In order to intimidate investigative journalists, the outspoken Editor of the Mathabhanga of Jessore was brutally killed like Sagar and Runi,and his dead body was cut to ten pieces and put up at the railway platform for public exhibition. The ease and confidence with which the criminals are operating clearly indicate that they are not afraid of anything, they can act with impunity and that they feel that they can be protected by people at powerful places or in the government. The prime accused in the Narayangunj seven murder case admittedly talked with the local AL Member of Parliament and sought protection. The unfortunate thing is that in most of the cases of gruesome murders, daring abductions and other crimes there are proofs of evidence or suspicion of involvement, either direct or indirect, of AL party leaders MPs, ministers, officials to RAB and Police.
I feel there should be, as demanded by the leader of the opposition party BNP, Begum Khaleda Zia, a high powered probe committee to work into a few of these cases inter-alia suggesting warps and weaves for protecting the nation from recurrence of such horrendous crimes. Even RAB and Police have been accused of direct and indirect involvement in such crimes for money. As alleged, some cases, they also acted under political pressure. Indeed, every corner of the government has been politicized. People cannot now look upon the law enforcing agencies for protection. A sense of insecurity, freight and apprehension has gripped the nation. On top of these there is no democracy.
Instead of holding dialogue to make efforts for organizing fair and participatory elections, the government is trying to subdue the voice of the dissent. Regrettably, a political party has to obtain permission from the Police/authorities to hold any meeting, even if it is held in a closed door auditorium. The other day (26th May) the government prevented BNP from holding a closed door discussion meeting under the chairmanship of BNP. Eminent members of the civil society, educationists, senior journalists, cultural personalities, poets, lawyers, columnists, social workers, businessmen, retired government officers were all invited to discuss the present situation and to press upon the government to take urgent and immediate measures to counter this slide and bring the offenders to justice - even this was not permitted- a closed door meeting of such nature even though the police had been duly informed and permission taken from hall authorities.
The proposed meeting of the Supreme Court Bar Association was also not allowed to be held on the scheduled venue. Even processions and human chains are not being permitted quite often. Hundreds of cases have been, or are being filed against leaders and workers of BNP and its associate bodies.
Indiscriminate arrests and intimidation have become common place. There have been too many cases of abduction and killings in custody. By not allowing Begum Khaleda Zia to hold any meeting the ruling party has strangulated the norms of democracy.
We have to come out of this dark and dismal quagmire. Our conscience should be whipped up and people should rise to end this intolerable state of affairs. The ruling party should be made to realize that the people of Bangladesh cannot be deprived of democracy for long. It is only return to democracy and re-institution of democratic practices that can reverse the nation's downward slide and save us from an impending disaster.
The writer is a development economist and advisor to the BNP Chairperson.
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