Jingoism should not get out of hand
Over the past couple of weeks, relations between India and Pakistan have taken a nasty turn. Rhetoric emerging from Delhi and Islamabad has not only deeply worried people in the sub-continent, but also leaders around the world. The heightened military tension between the two nuclear neighbours of South Asia did not come suddenly. It was in the making since July, 2016.
First, was the killing of Burhan Wani, a Hizbul Mujahideen commander in Indian Kashmir on July 8, 2016. This led to massive protests in the valley which still continues. Nearly hundred people have been killed so far by the Indian security forces trying to quell the uprising. Second, was the terrorist assault on the Indian army base in Uri on September 18, in which 18 Indian soldiers were killed. The incident created outrage and anger in Delhi, which squarely blamed Pakistan for the attack. Third, India claimed to have crossed the Line of Control (LOC) and conducted a "surgical operation" inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir on September 28 to destroy terrorist hideouts.
Pakistan however, denied any involvement in the Uri attack and blamed India for the gross violation of human rights in Kashmir by the Indian army. Pakistan also rejected the Indian claim of a surgical operation and instead declared that 7 Indian soldiers were killed and one soldier captured when firing broke out across the LOC in Kashmir. As tension mounted, civilians living near the LOC have been evacuated to safer places.
It is difficult to get the facts as both sides hyperbole the narrative on the Uri attack and the surgical operation. Clearly the storyline released to the media, in both India and Pakistan by the respective governments, is to appease public sentiments in both countries. After the Uri disaster the Indian public mood was up in arms for revenge on Pakistan. Pakistani leaders have also been threatening India. Tension has reached unprecedented levels.
The immediate casualty of the grave military tension has been the postponement of the 19th Saarc summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad from 9-10 November, 2016. India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan decided not to attend the meet, because of Pakistan's role in abetting terrorism and interfering in the internal affairs of member countries. Sri Lanka also joined in to skip the meet.
India has also mounted an offensive to diplomatically isolate Pakistan, accusing it of exporting terrorism. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj made an impassioned appeal at the UNGA on September 27 to isolate Pakistan. Delhi is also said to be considering other measures to isolate Pakistan.
The postponement of the Saarc summit bodes ill for the organisation, which is already in a limbo. Saarc will not die because of postponements, as it is a legal entity. Compelling Pakistan to postpone the summit was meant to punish Islamabad for its irresponsible behaviour. Indeed, in the eyes of outsiders, Pakistan would be seen as incapable of holding such a meet. But a closer look will tell that by pushing the summit to a later date all the member states have lost an opportunity to put pressure on Islamabad to come clean on terrorism.
Though the Saarc Charter prohibits raising bilateral issues in the formal sessions of the summit, leaders can always discuss their disputes at the retreat, which is a recognised forum of the summit. Looking at the postponement one can ask cynically: did Pakistan really lose by postponing the summit? Not much, as past records demonstrate Pakistan hardly had much interest in the organisation.
There are now proposals to have a Saarc without Pakistan. There is also talk that the 19th summit venue be shifted to a different location. All these are wishful ideas given the present status of Saarc Charter.
The root cause of tension between the two large neighbours of South Asia is the unresolved Kashmir issue. They have gone to war over Kashmir in 1947, 1965 and 1999 but the problem could not be resolved.
India and Pakistan need to sit down immediately and start the "comprehensive" dialogue that was agreed between the two in December 2015, when Sushma Swaraj visited Islamabad. The recognised structure at the level of Foreign Secretaries should immediately convene to diffuse the tension. The UN, US, Russia and China have all asked Nawaz and Modi to exercise restraint and cool down tempers.
India has to give up its inflexible stance to discuss only "terrorism", before taking up other issues with Pakistan. India has to recognise that the Kashmir issue has remained unresolved for the past seven decades and the demands of 12.5 million Kashmiris cannot be quelled by military force. Pakistan also has to eliminate all terrorist outfits from its soil to convince India that it is serious to resolve all bilateral issues.
Let us be very clear, disputes can be solved in two ways – war or negotiations. For India and Pakistan war cannot be an option, particularly now as a conventional conflict can quickly turn into a nuclear clash, which will endanger the whole of humanity. Thus responsible meaningful negotiation is the only civilised way to resolve bilateral disputes. Both the countries just cannot allow jingoism to get out of their control and behave irresponsibly.
The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.
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