Ban Ki-Moon returns from Yangon empty-handed

Photo: Getty ImagesMahmood Hasan

BURMA (now Myanmar) is our next-door neighbour but has remained largely ignored in our media and our foreign policy. Burma's notoriously secretive military junta stonewalled UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon on his recent visit to Naypyidaw, the new capital.

Burma slid from the quasi-military rule of Gen. Ne Win's infamous Burma Socialist Program Party (BSPP) to full military rule, following massive pro-democracy uprisings in 1988. At that time, the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi was the undisputed leader of the democracy movement. The military junta led by Gen Saw Maung declared Martial Law, which continues even today after 21 years.

In 1990, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won an overwhelming victory at the national elections but the junta, on grounds of it being fraudulent, rejected the results. Gen. Than Shwe now leads the junta. The junta has held Suu Kyi in detention for 13 years and systematically strangled the pro-democracy movement.

In May this year, Suu Kyi's detention was supposed to have ended, but that opportunity was lost when an American -- John Yettaw (53) -- swam across Inya Lake and intruded into Suu Kyi's lakeside house. He spent two nights in the compound before being detected and arrested by the military police. The junta accused Suu Kyi of violating the house arrest terms and put her on trial. If convicted Suu Kyi could be imprisoned for five years.

Outraged governments and activists from around the world called for her immediate release. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown ,speaking on Suu Kyi's 64th birthday last month, described her as "perhaps the most renowned prisoner of conscience in the world," and pledged to step up sanctions and take further measures against the oppressive military regime. A joint statement agreed by EU leaders said that unless Suu Kyi and 2,100 other Burmese political prisoners were released the credibility of the elections scheduled for 2010 would be undermined.

The United Nations has been speaking to the military regime for quite some time now without making any headway. Special envoys were sent to Rangoon to persuade the junta to be more flexible and establish democracy. Razali Ismail, the Malaysian diplomat who was appointed UN special envoy to Burma in 2000, had some success. His repeated entreaties with to generals led to the release of Suu Kyi in May 2002.

But the ruthless military arrested her again in May 2003. A frustrated Razali resigned in 2005. The secretary general then appointed Ibrahim Gambari, a Nigerian diplomat, as special envoy to Burma in May 2007. Gambari visited Burma several times but his talks with the secretive generals did not succeed in obtaining the release of Suu Kyi or improving the massive human rights violations in the country.

Ban Ki-Moon's second visit (July 3-4) to Burma came at the invitation of the Burmese government. He had high hopes that he would be able to meet Suu Kyi. Ban Ki-Moon first visited Burma in May last year after cyclone Nargis. He met General Than Shwe twice and asked him for a meeting with Suu Kyi. The general politely informed Ban Ki-Moon that since Suu Kyi was facing charges a meeting would prejudice the trial. The general was also circumspect about Ban Ki-Moon's demands for the release of political prisoners and the 2010 general elections.

The secretary general left Rangoon a deeply disappointed man. "I believe the government of Myanmar failed to take a unique opportunity to show its commitment to a new era of political openness," he said to the media in Bangkok on July 4. He also affirmed that he had conveyed the concerns of the international community "very frankly" and "directly" to General Than Shwe.

It will be naïve to assume that the generals will give up power just because the international community wants it, but there may be two ways the generals can be forced to relinquish power. One, the people of Burma rise, as they did in 1988 but with greater vigour, and force the military to hold fair elections followed by the formation of an independent political government. Two, an external power compels them to quit.

Neither is possible at this stage. The Burmese people have few demands and are happy with whatever little they have. Decades of military rule has made them apolitical, though their yearning for democracy has grown over the years. Educated youths are still keen to join the army -- they can wield unlimited power and make lots of money. Besides, the people of Burma are quite aware of the brutal strength of the military. Any uprising will definitely be harshly quelled.

As for an external intervention -- the possibilities are non-existent. The generals have developed strong relations with China. The economic and military cooperation between China and Burma since 1999 has been the kingpin in determining Burma's foreign policy. Through agreements China has gained access to Burma's vast natural resources and obtained a gateway into the Indian Ocean through the naval bases in Coco Island, located in the Andaman Sea.

Burma has also become a member of regional organisations -- Asean (July 1997) and Bimstec (Dec 1997). Its relations with India can be termed "friendly." Relations with Bangladesh are cool and laced with elements of distrust. At least recent incidents between the two countries point in that direction. Neither India nor Bangladesh, both democratic countries, has been critical about the junta's policies towards democracy, Suu Kyi or the human rights situation in Burma. Thus Burma, though isolated, is secure in a region where it has no serious criticism.

It is, therefore, no wonder that the military junta has been able to shrug off international criticism and condemnation. It is, indeed, unfortunate and distressing to see that Burma -- a founder member of the United Nations, which gave the UN its third secretary general (U Thant, 1961-1972) -- now violates all tenets of human rights.

Ban Ki-Moon will now face criticism for undertaking the visit, and hoping to make a breakthrough and nudge the generals towards establishing democracy. He was advised to undertake the visit after the generals had made meaningful concessions, not before. Ban Ki-Moon's unassertive diplomatic style failed to strike a chord with Than Shwe.

The isolated military junta of Burma successfully used the high office of the secretary general to its advantage, providing him oriental hospitality but firmly refusing to give into his demands. He has gone back empty handed -- Aung San Suu Kyi will continue to be under detention, political prisoners will languish in the notorious Insein jail and the elections of 2010, if at all held, will not lead to the establishment of any political government.

Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and Secretary.