Climate change makes winter unpleasant

Recreation in winter is an important part of Bangalee culture but that pleasant winter is feared to become a rarity due to adverse effects of climate change, affecting the public health and the national economy in many ways.

“Cold days and cold nights are very likely to become less frequent here due to climate change and this change has been apparent in the trend of this winter too,” said AFM Shahidur Rahman, an environmentalist.

In Bangladesh, he said, winter is considered pleasant, eagerly awaited and planned for. And it is the Bangalee month of Kartik that brings in the early cold air. “Now Kartik is almost over, but winter has not yet set in.”

According to UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the global temperature would increase up to 1 degree centigrade in summer and 1.5 degree in winter by 2050, resulting in sea-level rise by up to half metre that will engulf 11 percent of the land of Bangladesh affecting nearly 60 lakh people along the coastal belt.

Byomkesh Talukder, a fellow of Environmental Policy at Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), Japan, says the index of aridity will increase during winter under changed climate conditions. As a result, an increased rate of desiccation in topsoil, leading to higher rates of capillary action, will be observed.

Climatic variability has increased notably in recent times. Prolonged summer and shorter rainy and winter seasons will only increase the trend of droughts and desertification, inflicting an adverse impact on the country's agro-based economy, according to Shahidur Rahman.

Dr Jahangirul Alam, a government physician who also works on climate change issues, said this is worrying in a sense that it will lead to more illness and death, particularly among the young, elderly and frail. Respiratory disorders may be exacerbated by warming-induced deterioration in air quality.

A senior scientific officer at Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), who preferred not to be named, said warmer conditions may accelerate the life cycles of insect pests, leading to attacks on plants at earlier and more susceptible stages of growth.

“With warmer temperatures, water quality could also be affected, causing various diseases. Drier scenarios create oxygen-starved lakes and streams; wet scenarios increase the threat of pollution from runoff,” he said.

Studies indicate that the regional availability and reliability of water resources may be responsible for the most dramatic effects of climate change.

The BRRI official said the warmer weather will push up demand for energy. “Our demand for electricity is rather sensitive to the weather and to industrial growth. Changes in the weather patterns mean changes in energy consumption. Higher summertime temperatures would mean increased use of air conditioners.”

Both increased water temperatures and changes in the salinity of habitats could reduce the population of species profitable to the state's fishing industry. “We have a right to be alarmed when studies indicate that climate change could cause significant changes in the country's forests too,” the BRRI official said.

It is widely apprehended that productivity in Bangladesh could change due to the impacts of the climate change although warmer temperatures may lead to increased yields in some parts of the country.