Remittance on growth path

IN spite of being arrayed against adversities, remittance flows into the country have been on the growth path. It is the rate of increase that has been subject to fluctuations but not growth as such. On top of this, we now have a definitively positive piece of news in that the WB's projections of a reduced remittance growth for the current fiscal are already being assailed if the figure for the first four months of the current fiscal is any guide. The growth of inflow stood at 21.23 percent during July to October and there is cautious optimism about outlook for economic recovery in the host countries possibly brightening up in the remainder of the year.

The figures speak for themselves as Bangladesh recorded remittance inflow of $3.61billion between July and October, 2009 compared with $2.98 billion in the same period last year. The forex reserve has crossed $9 billion in August compared with $7.74 billion in July.

On the flip-side and this is also a very substantive factor as far as the effects of world-wide recession go, the outflow of migrant workers from Bangladesh has been on a sharp decline. It came down by 47 percent in the second half of fiscal 2009, slightly better than 57 percent in July last year. One particular statistic says it all: the number of employed abroad this year is 650,000 compared to 969,000 the year before.

How is the increase in remittance inflows is to be accounted for then? The apparent variability in the known pattern of cause-and-effect sequence merits deeper analysis and well-founded interpretations. We are awaiting this from experts. However by available explanations, a dollar hike in oil prices increases annual remittance by nearly $15million, depreciation in foreign exchange rate by one taka increases annual remittance by $18 million and, overall, remittances are higher in times of low economic growth. It appears that in times of recession our workers abroad save more and send more money home for future safety and out of a concern for their near and dear ones at home. The other reasons cited are more recourse to organised channels for remittance and remittance from blue colour expatriate job holders who are perhaps, we would like to think, building stake at home.

Given the untiring contributions of ordinary Bangladeshi workers abroad to the national coffers conferring a respectability on, it is time we reciprocated their gesture.