Disappearance of MH370: An inexplicable reality
MYSTERY and uncertainty are intensifying over the disappearance last Saturday of the Malaysian airlines flight MH370 Boeing 777 carrying 239 passengers and crew aboard. The Boeing 777 is known to be one of the safest and most popular passenger jets of our time. What could have happened to this huge jet airliner weighing 316,800 pounds (143 tons) and able to carry another 340,000 pounds (155 tons) of passengers, luggage, cargo and fuel?
Speculations and rumours surrounding the baffling disappearance of the aircraft are making it increasingly difficult to think what exactly might have happened to MH370. The media, in particular, have found a sensational scoop news item to entertain the mystery-hungry audience through presenting and dissecting the story about an event that is incomprehensible and still unfolding. By talking and writing about UFOs, Bermuda Triangle, alien invasion, cosmic showers and so on, bloggers and media outlets are trying to create the eerie atmosphere of a Gothic tale! Without following such a trail, let us try to frame some possible scenarios involving the disappearance of the plane.
The psychological or personal condition of the crew and passengers was highlighted by the latest Malaysian airlines official briefing. What does it mean? It implies that there could be one or more unruly passengers or psychologically disturbed crew members who might be responsible for a possible accident. Possibility of terrorist attack or hijacking has also not been ruled out. Mechanical or electrical issues, including engine failure, short-circuit or computer malfunction could trigger a possible crash of the aircraft as well. Why is it so difficult to locate the lost aircraft despite launching of the world's most comprehensive aircraft search ever? It may not be difficult to explain.
First, we often do not realise how vast the ocean is and how deep it could be. Deep sea could easily have a depth of 2,000 meters (2 kms). A trench could have a depth of over 10 kms! If somehow a plane nosedives and reaches the bottom of the sea, it may not be able to float back to the surface again! Even the so-called shallow water in the ocean means a depth of around 100 meters (i.e. the height of a 30 storied building). Many of the previously disappeared ships and planes are thought to be sitting on the bed of the deep sea!
Second, there has not been any signal from the Black Box since the aircraft's disappearance. This could be due either to the volume and depth of water it needed to get through if immersed under the sea, or it could have been manually deactivated by someone. The electronic beacons of Black Boxes often cannot emerge from an underwater trench. Apart from the Black Box, the Boeing 777 is equipped with a computer-based Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) which is capable of talking to the ground automatically through short messages. ACARS, in this instance, did not send any such message since the disappearance of the aircraft, primarily suggesting that the aircraft is either drowned in deep underwater or switched off manually.
However, if we assume that both the Black Box and the ACARS were not working properly (which might have happened given the age of the aircraft and lack of technological upgrading), then where do we stand with respect to possible explanations? It could still be under water! If not, what are the other possibilities?
There could be a sudden (although unlikely) failure of ACARS and the entire communication network together with the failure of both engines. In that case, the plane will still float after eventual descent. Depending on the direction and speed of the air in the lower atmosphere, it could be carried to a destination where it would crash. Again, it could be on the sea or any of the surrounding land, including deep forests, lakes or rivers. If it is due to the deliberate act of one or both pilots or a group of hijackers/terrorists, they might have switched all communication protocols off and veered the aircraft towards an unknown destiny and destination! As claimed by some news stories, some of the phones are still ringing. If this is true, the plane might have crashed on land somewhere with little chance of anyone surviving, or they are well and alive but not in a position to respond to those calls! Continuing on this perspective, could it be a case similar to the 1972 Andes disaster of Uruguayan Flight 571? Has the plane crashed in a remote forest or rugged mountainous area without any communication network and apparently vanished from sight and air surveillance?
The latest revelation is that the plane actually changed its route and veered West with transponders switched off, flying low to avoid radar. This may also lead us to the wildest of our guesses -- did the plane fly low to reach a destination that we did not even imagine? Could it be taken up to Somalia by Somalian pirates in pursuit of huge ransom? Given the territory they reign over and the money they have, it is possible for them to build a runway and hiding shed for a plane! Although the chance is very remote, this may provide us with some space to keep thinking that the people onboard MH370 are still alive but under duress!
Overall, as the US spy satellites did not find any evidence of mid-air explosion, it could be argued that the plane ended up either in the sea or on the land. We can only hope to see the plane surfacing with its passengers and crew well and alive somewhere, somehow, soon!
The writer is the Head of 'Geopolitics, Business and Government Research Cluster' at RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.
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