BJP, allies to get 275
An opinion poll has for the first time projected a clear majority by the coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the ongoing parliamentary elections in India and put the tally of seats for the ruling Congress to a double-digit figure.
The poll conducted by Hansa Research in first week of April and telecast by the NDTV news channel on Monday night has forecast that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would secure 275 seats in the 543-member House, three more than the half-way mark.
The previous opinion poll conducted in February and broadcast by the same TV channel last month had given 16 seats less to the NDA.
The reliability of opinion polls in India has often come under question in the past as they had been off the mark.
The latest survey claims the BJP on its own would win 226 seats -- the highest tally ever for the party and the best by any party since 1991 -- the poll estimates. The February survey had claimed BJP would get 196 seats.
The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would win just 111 seats, with Congress sinking to its lowest-ever tally of 92 seats, it said.
NDA's projected win is based on impressive gains over 2009 in Uttar Pradesh with an increase of 41 seats,
Maharashtra 17, Rajasthan 17, Bihar 12, Andhra Pradesh 12 and Madhya Pradesh 10. In these six states, it stands to gain 109 seats. In most other states too, NDA is projected to gain, though by more modest numbers.
Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is projected by the survey to end up as the third largest party -- though a distant third -- in parliament with 30 seats.
The latest survey bases its assumption of the NDA getting a majority on the projection of the BJP doing very well in elections in key battleground states of Uttar Pradesh, where it is projected to get 51 of the 80 seats, and in Bihar by bagging 24 out of 40.
The forecast of the NDA's march to majority is also based on the survey's finding that the coalition would get 37 out of the 48 seats in Maharashtra ruled by Congress and its ally NCP for more than a decade.
The only major states where the NDA would fare poor are West Bengal, ruled by Trinamool Congress, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh states ruled by Congress and the BJP respectively, according to the latest poll.
In contrast, the Congress-led UPA is predicted to lose seats compared to previous general elections in 2009 in almost every major state, with Andhra Pradesh being the worst case, where the party's tally could drop from 33 five years ago to just six this time.
Except for Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, the only states where the UPA stands to gain are Assam with a gain of two seats and Bihar, with an increase of six seats.
The latest opinion poll came three days before another major round of polling covering 122 seats tomorrow in India's staggered general elections which end on May 12 and results will be declared four days later.
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