Record oil prices widen rich-poor gap
Afp, Paris
Record high oil prices, while having little effect on the world's industrialised nations and benefiting oil-producing emerging economies, are taking a toll on poor countries that rely on imports, analysts say. World oil prices this week hit a record high when New York crude prices reached 78.77 dollars per barrel on news of sliding American crude reserves. "You cannot say that this has had any effect on the world economy," said Philippe Chalmin, an economics professor at Paris Dauphine university. "Rich countries have been remarkably good at adapting to significantly higher oil prices" over the past four years, said Francis Perrin, director of the "Le petrole et le gaz arabes" publication. That situation is likely to continue. Demand for oil has soared in recent years due to the needs of emerging economies, in particular China, and because of the growing world economy. It is rising today much faster than production capacity, which is likely to keep up the pressure on prices and prevent a return to price levels of five years ago, when a barrel was worth around 25 dollars. But despite soaring prices today, the International Monetary Fund has just raised its forecast for world growth to 5.2 percent for 2007 and 2008 and says that while it recognises that high oil prices present a risk, it is not alarmed. Industrialised countries are today much less dependant on oil than they were 30 years ago, said Manouchehr Takin from the Centre for Global Energy Studies. They diversified their energy sources after the oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s, with some turning to nuclear power, and they also improved their energy efficiency. Takin however said that if oil prices climb beyond 80 dollars the trend could have a psychological effect and curb growth and accelerate inflation. Oil-producing economies such as Algeria, Venezuela or Libya have profited handsomely from high prices, But many analysts say that the price rises are a calamity for developing countries that rely on imports for their energy needs. Their oil bills have ballooned, worsening their deficits and hampering their fight against poverty. Claude Mandil, the head of the International Energy Agency watchdog, warned recently of a "catastrophe" for the world's poorest countries that had forced the state to provide subsidies for oil. He said the cost of these subsidies was five times higher than the savings made when rich lender nations wrote off poor countries' debts. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest report on African economic perspectives that because of high oil prices, inflation had climbed beyond 10 percent in many of the continent's countries that relied on oil imports. Kuwait says Global growth, instability fuel record prices Another report from Kuwait City adds: Opec-member Kuwait said on Sunday that recent record-high oil prices were due to continued growth in the world economy and political instability in major oil producing regions. Nawal Al-Fuzaia, Kuwait's representative at the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), told state news agency KUNA that demand was increasing from China, India and the United States for "petrol products, particularly in the transport sector such as cars, aeroplanes." Opec expects that global demand for oil will rise by up to 1.3 million barrels per day next year, Fuzaia said. She added prices also rose because of "political instability...in the Middle East and the rising tension between the United States and Iran over the Iranian nuclear issue." Fuzaia declined to predict where prices were likely to go next as it was "difficult to predict oil prices, particularly in the short term," adding that Opec worked to maintain balance in the market and between producers and consumers. Kuwait says it has oil reserves of 100 billion barrels, meaning the Gulf Arab state has the world's fifth largest reserves after Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Kuwait, whose officially stated oil reserves constitute about 10 percent of global crude reserves, is pumping around 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) and oil income contributes more than 95 percent of public revenues. Based on the official figure, oil reserves can last for more than 100 years based on current production levels. The emirate produces just under one billion barrels of crude annually.
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