With provincial and national elections approaching later this year, Musharraf's administrative maturity and political acumen are on serious test.

Iftekhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the Chief Justice of Pakistan was unceremoniously dismissed by President Musharraf on March 9. That incident quickly got out of control, leading to violent street battles that cost 41 lives in Karachi. The allegations against Chaudhry were serious enough for the president to show him the door.

Chaudhry was accused of misusing his office for securing a high-ranking job for his son in the Police Department. Chaudhry sympathizers say that Musharraf sacked him because he was too independent. He may have created difficulties for the military government in the upcoming legal battles ahead of the general electionshence the dismissal.

Protests over Chaudhry's removal gave the judiciary and the civil administartion an opportunity to vent their anger against Musharraf and his military junta. The opposition political parties also joined lawyers protesting Chaudhry's ouster.

Protests degenerated into violence in the streets, leading to deaths of innocent civilians. In one such demonstration in Lahore, Chaudhry declared that dictators who ignored the rule of law faced "destruction."

The situation continued to worsen and, at one time, some analysts even predicted that Musharraf would be compelled to proclaim "emergency" to bring matters under control. While the chief justice episode was still simmering, a new threat stared Musharraf in the face. The militants of Lal Masjid threw a challenge to the authority of Musharraf.

Pakistan's Religious Ministry built the mosque in Islamabad in 1965, and named it "Lal Masjid" as its façade was built with red bricks. Its first Khatib, Maulana Abdullah, selected by President Ayub Khan, had two sons who are now running the affairs of the Lal Masjid. The two brothersAbdul Aziz and Abdul Rashid Ghazi, have been propagating "Jehadi fatwas" since the days of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Late President Ziaul Haq patronized the two maulanas by frequenting the mosque. Jamia Hafsa, a madrasa for girls was established in the mosque in 1992. Later Jamia Faridia for boys was also set up a few kilometers away under the mosque.

Trouble at the mosque began early this year, when the Maulana brothers set up anti-vice squads with madrasa students. Later, a Sharia Court was also set up to try so-called social vices. The two brothersAziz and Ghazidemanded imposition of Islamic Sharia in Pakistan. Since early June, the mosque area had been surrounded by commando policemen.

Things got out of control when, in late June, the "vigilante" students raided a nearby massage parlour and seized six Chinese masseuses, allegedly for immoral activities. At this point, Musharraf had to sit up straight as Beijing reacted strongly, asking Islamabad to secure the release of it nationals unharmed.

The abducted Chinese were released three days later. But confrontation between the militant students and the police did not abate. Burqa-clad stick-wielding female students of Jamia Hafsa attacked nearby government buildings and police pickets. On July 2, when the police asked the two Maulanas to surrender and let the students freethe confrontation with authorities took an ugly turn. Several hundred students were trapped inside the mosque at that time.

Aziz was later arrested when he tried to flee, wearing a burqa, but Ghazi stayed with 50/60 militants to fight on. The final showdown came on July 10, when army commando units stormed the mosque and brought an end to the weeklong bloody drama. Maulana Ghazi was killed in the operation, along with his jehadi militants. According to reports 102 lives were lost, including those of 11 soldiers.

There are several intriguing questions, which have been left unanswered. Security in Islamabad has been foolproof since the previous assassination attempts on Musharraf. How did these fanatics carry such large quantities of arms and ammunition into the mosque under the very nose of the ISI? Was it a failure of the intelligence, or were the ISI an accomplice in smuggling these? After all, weren't the Taliban a creation of the ISI? Why did the government wait for six months to stamp out these bigots? Keeping the elections in mind, it looks like Musharraf did not want to meddle with the religious groups.

When the judges and militants are testing Musharraf's nerve and resolvemother nature seems to have also joined hands to test his administrative ability. Monsoon rains and cyclone have devastated large areas in Balochistan and North West Frontier Province (NWFP). More than 900 people have died so far, and 1.5 million people affected by floods, causing massive damage to crops and infrastructure.

The administration is fully stretched trying to bring relief to the affected people. The president has been making frequent sorties to visit the affected areas. On July 7, when Musharraf's aircraft flew out of Rawalpindi for Balochistan, anti-aircraft fire was directed against his plane. Though the attempt on his life failed, and the government denied the attemptanti-aircraft guns and ammunition were found on the roof of a building near Chaklala Airport.

Not to be outdone by the jehadis, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif organized a mini-summit of several opposition political parties of Pakistan in London on July 11. The Multi-Party Conference (MPC) discussed ways to oust Musharraf and drew up strategies for the next elections in January 2008. Interestingly, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto was conspicuously absent from the meeting, giving credence to rumours that Musharraf was negotiating a deal with Benazirfor her to return to Pakistan on condition that he would continue as president and army chief.

Lal Masjid in now truly "Lal," with the blood of jehadis, students and soldiers. Between now and the national electionsMusharraf is likely to face more challenges. There are already reports that Friday prayer devotees had demonstrated against Musharraf all over Pakistan on July 13.

The tribal areas are restless, and suicide bombings are on the increase. Anti-US sentiments are running highthough President Bush has congratulated Musharraf for the mosque operation. The religious parties are denouncing Musharraf. The judiciary and the civil bureaucracy are alienated. The major political parties are up in arms.

Military leaders do not have a political constituency or a base from where they can claim legitimacy. Their authority comes from the brute firepower of the gun. It is only natural that they would seek controversial partners to gain legitimacy when they usurp power. Obscure religious parties in Pakistan have always proved handy in the strategy of the military's continuing in power. What Pervez Musharraf's strategy will be for political survival, will be interesting to watch.

Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and Secretary.