Presently, almost 80% of electricity is produced by natural gas, and uses up about 51% of the daily gas production. The next major gas consuming sector is fertiliser, which consumes about 21% of the daily gas production. The daily gas production is currently about 1600 MMCFD (million cubic feet per day). Around fifty one per cent of daily gas production is used to generate about 3200+ megawatt of electricity daily. In addition, about 1000 megawatt is produced from hydro-, fuel-, and thermal based sources, resulting in a deficit of about 800 megawatt in daily demand.

Our present daily electricity demand is about 5000 megawatt, and the projected demand is about 15000 megawatt by 2020. Meeting such a large demand of 15000 megawatt daily will require daily gas production to the tune of 4500 MMCFD.

In addition, about 4000 MMCFD will be needed to produce fertiliser, and for other industrial uses. The total demand for gas will be around 8500 MMCFD by 2020. Considering only 6% annual growth rate from 2007 AD to 2020 AD, total gas consumption would be more than 12 TCF, while for 7% annual growth rate it would be more than 13 TCF. How much reserves of gas do we actually have?

Two estimates, as of December 2003, prepared by the National Committee of Gas Demand and Reserve 2002 (data source: Energy Resources of Bangladesh by Badrul Imam, page 67 & 68) suggest that in 2007 the recoverable gas reserve amounts to 9.5 TCF (conservative estimate) and 12.8 TCF (liberal estimate), respectively.

However, it is beyond any doubt that the country has a maximum of 11 TCF (proven + probable) gas reserve at present, including Bibiyana (2.4 TCF?), even if a liberal estimate is considered. Hence, how shall we meet the target of 15000 megawatt daily electricity demand by 2020 when our gas reserves will be emptied even much before 2020?

The other energy resource is coal, one of the most important resources for electricity generation. Coal has been used for electricity generation globally for centuries. A deposit of high-grade bituminous coal in Bangladesh was discovered at Jamalganj (Joypurhat) in 1962, and subsequently more discoveries were made at Boropukuria, Khalaspir, Dighipara, and Phulbari.

The extreme depths of the Jamalganj coal seams rule out the possibility of any coal mining, but the other four coal fields can be mined. These four coal fields together contain about 1000 million tons of total reserves. Underground mining can recover a maximum of 200 million tons during the mine life.

Even if all the mines attain full production the yearly output of 5 million tons as opined by some energy experts would be very hard to achieve. Even if daily production of 13700 tons (5 million tons yearly) is achieved, and all of it is used for electricity generation, it will generate about 2000 megawatt electricity daily.

At present, only 250 megawatt electricity is produced daily from the plants at Boropukuria, using 1200 million tons of our own coal and 800 million tons of very low grade (possibly lignite) imported coal.

To increase the efficiency of the Boropukuria power plants high grade coal will be imported from abroad at $170 per ton against the present international price of $70 per ton!! We have already explored 12 basins in the northwestern shelf, of which only 4 basins contain coal at exploitable depths. Whether or not we have any more undiscovered coal deposits only time will tell.

The bottom line is the choice of mining method. This is the crucial part of coal mine design and development, because of the 80% and 20% recovery limit from "open-pit" and "underground mining" methods respectively.

Open-pit mining, though allowing 80% recovery, has enormous social, environmental and financial impact, especially in a country like Bangladesh, which is solely dependent on agriculture. The loss of agricultural lands and population displacement are the two major unmanageable and irreparable social hazards. Open-pit mining in Australia, India or some European countries cannot be used as examples because it is done in absolutely barren and hostile lands.

Other environmental problems include the possible desertification of the entire northwestern region of the country because the Tista fan, which is the principle catchment area for groundwater recharge of the entire region, will be severely affected and, eventually, other ecological imbalances will crop-up. For an open-pit mine at Phulbari, the base of the mine will be about 300m deep to maintain the slope stability.

This will expose about 200m of the Dupi, Tila, and Tista fan water-bearing sand-face in a 6 sq km mine area. Since the regional gradient is to the south, one can easily foresee how unmanageable the dewatering problem will be. There will be enormous lowering of groundwater table in the upper fan region. The problem of acid mine drainage contaminating down-slope regions is obvious and needs no explanation.

It was calculated that open-pit mining would incur a loss of $19 billion alone from Phulbari (Dr. Mustafizur Rahman, Daily Star, March 29, 2006). Hence, open-pit mining is a luxury for us, and is simply out of the question due to the multiple social, financial and environmental hazards involved.

We have no options other than to go for underground mining for coal extraction and development. The government is actively considering formulation of a coal policy to incorporate into the National Energy Policy. A number of good suggestions have been put forward, such as the declaration of a coal zone in northwestern Bangladesh and the establishment of Coalbangla.

The pertinent question is, how best can we face and meet the challenges of the energy crisis that is likely to emerge in the very near future. We have very few options, and those need to be considered with national interest in mind.

We need to launch a massive search programme for gas discovery, both on-shore and off-shore, largely with our own resources. We may think of importing gas into Teknaf, a distance of about 100 km from the Shwe Gas Field on the Arakan coast in Myanmar, on bi-lateral agreement.

We must not go for any further coal mining ventures by any foreign agencies. If necessary, only experienced foreign consultants may be appointed. The up-coming coal policy must guarantee our 100% ownership and no-export of coal.

Dr. Aftab Alam Khan is a Professor, Geology Department, Dhaka University.