Repeat Asian financial crunch unlikely, despite shocks
Afp, Hong Kong
Ten years after the Asian financial crisis stung unwitting investors, stock markets have returned to record highs and free-wheeling capitalism is back, prompting many to ask, can it happen again? Probably not, according to analysts, who argue the fiscal psyche of the region was fundamentally changed by the social and economic upheavals of 1997 and 1998 that marked an end to decades of unprecedented regional growth. David O'Rear, chief economist with the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce said there were no reasons why the same circumstances that led to the Asian crisis could not happen again but the odds are low. "First and most important, the decision makers have been there, done that, and got the message," he said. "Experience is a great teacher and no one in Asia will forget the economic depression of the late 1990s." The crisis was sparked on July 2 1997 when Thailand attempted to ease immediate pressure on its own faltering economy by floating its currency which had remained pegged within narrow trading band against the US dollar. Other currencies followed suit and crashed under crippling debt levels and amid soaring interest rates. Governments were forced to slash budget spending and drastically reduce subsidies to business and the poor. Widespread and often bloody protests erupted around the region, governments were thrown out of office and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) extended bailout packages to South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. The harsh econmic conditions tied to those packages had others, like Malaysia, rejecting IMF advances. Stock markets collapsed and bankruptcies beckoned. Then, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the outbreak of bird oflu in 1997 and then and SARS in 2003 compounded the problems and it was not until 2005 that the region's economy returned to an even keel.
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