French voters balance Sarkozy's power
Mahmood Hasan
Nicolas Sarkozy won handsomely in the French Presidential elections last month, promising massive reforms to lift the economy. Elections to the ninth National Assembly (lower House of Parliament) of the Fifth Republic ended on June 17. The shrewd French electorate returned Sarkozy's center-right UMP with a comfortable mandate, but not the landslide as was predicted by pre-election opinion polls. Many had predicted over 450 seats for the UMP and its allies. Sarkozy obtained 336 seats, with UMP getting 314 and the allies 22. This was an unexpected setback. The opposition parties (socialists, greens, communists) together got 204 seats, up from 178. The Socialists improved their tally from 141 to 185, though the prediction was that they would not get more than 100 seats. Issues, even small ones like the projected 2% rise in sales tax, can swing votes in a highly politicised society like France. The Socialist campaign on this point probably cost UMP the landslide victory. French voters can be perverse. To keep Sarkozy under pressure, they could have given a majority mandate to the Socialists -- compelling Sarkozy to "co-habit" with a leftist prime minister. Socialist president Francois Mitterand had to co-habit with rightist Prime Minister Jacques Chirac in the 80s. It shows that the French are willing to give the new president the wherewithal to push his radical reform package. But then, the French have not gone so far as to give a crushing majority to UMP, so that it didn't become despotic. Like the presidential elections, the assembly elections were also held over two rounds. A total of 7639 candidates from 14 parties fought for 577 seats of the assembly. A candidate winning more than 50% votes in the first round would win the seat outright. If there is no clear winner, all candidates who score more than 12.5% in the first round qualify for the runoff. A total of 44.5 million voters were to cast their ballots in 85,000 polling stations. What was noteworthy was that 41% of the candidates were female. French election law requires that parties nominate equal numbers of male and female candidates. Parties failing to maintain the quota lose the government campaign fund. Interestingly, neither UMP nor the Socialists met their quota this year. Nominating female candidates does not necessarily mean that they will win. In the outgoing assembly only 12% were female deputies (assembly members). The major parties that contested the elections were -- UMP, the Socialist Party, Union for French Democracy (UDF), the Greens, the National Front, and the Communist Party. Francois Byrou, who emerged as a force during the presidential election, established a new party "Movement Démocrate" (MoDem), which failed to make any impression in the elections (3 seats). The National Front of Le Pen has all but collapsed. His vote bank went down from 11% to 4.6%, and did not get any seat. This is surely the end of racist Jean Marie Le Pen, who is now an old man of 79. Since April this year, France has gone through unending election campaigning -- first the presidential and now the assembly, each of these with two rounds. Evidently, there was fatigue, which was reflected in the lower turn-out of 60% this time. At the presidential, it was 84%. The lower turn-out did deny a landslide to the "Blue Wave" of Sarkozy. What is significant is that a record number of black Africans, Arabs, Muslims, and other minority groups also contested the elections this time. This year, at least 250 candidates contested the elections. In 2002 there were only 12 candidates. Weeks of street rioting in the autumn of 2005 have demonstrated the serious undercurrent of dissatisfaction amongst the immigrant population. The emboldened immigrant population had tried to send their representatives to the assembly, so that their voice would be heard. This time around the minority candidates openly debated racism and discrimination during the campaign -- which until now was a taboo. France has the least diverse government in Europe, because of its furtive racist policies. Over the years the National Front of Le Pen helped in creating a strong anti-immigrant sentiment amongst the indigenous whites. If one looks at the French government, the parliament or the corporate world -- one shall not find a single black African or Arab Muslim in any responsible decision-making position. Minorities have only 13 seats in the assembly, and all these "deputies" are from French Overseas Territories. In the eighth assembly there was not a single minority representative from Continental France -- though over 10% of the population is made up of Africans, Arabs and other minorities. The entry of the minority communities into active politics portends a seismic shift in French politics. The induction of several women ministers and leftist leaders into the cabinet has given the wily Sarkozy a kind of wide acceptability. Unfortunately, the number two in the cabinet Alain Juppe, a former prime minister, lost his Bordeaux seat and immediately announced his resignation from the Sarkozy team. This will lead to a reshuffle of the month-old cabinet of Prime Minister Francois Fillon. The better than expected results for the Socialists has triggered off an unusual power struggle within the Socialist Party. Segolene Royal, the vanquished Socialist presidential candidate, has announced that she was ending her 27-year old unmarried relationship with her partner Francois Hollande, the incumbent Secretary General of the Socialist Party. Segolene Royal has announced her candidacy for the position, when Hollande's term ends next year. The ninth assembly shall meet for a special session on June 26, to discuss reforms. The composition reveals that the center-right UMP and its allies will dominate the assembly, while the opposition led by the Socialist will be a force to reckon with. In a duolithic assembly -- divided into "center-right" and the "left" -- the government will have to be alert. France is known for its notorious street violence. Differences in the assembly can quickly spill over onto the streets, and block all grandiose reform projects. When Sarkozy won the presidential elections, he described it as a mandate for a moral renaissance and for radical reforms of the welfare state. He also resigned from the UMP and declared himself as president of France with a single identity. His popularity rating now is the highest, at 64 %. Strangely, his active disapproval rating is equally high, at 31%. The violence in Bastille area of Paris for four days in a row after Sarkozy was declared president was an indication of the anger of his detractors. Political swings in France can be rapid, and the French are known for their impatience. Sarkozy's short-lived honeymoon with the electorate seems to be over. It is now time for hard reckoning over radical reforms. Victory, at times, can be baneful. The preponderance of UMP deputies in the assembly may breed arrogance, indiscipline and vicious internal squabbling. Sarkozy shall do well to keep his deputies under control. The election results are a clear signal to Sarkozy that he should tread softly, and with caution. He would do well not to forget the history of failed reforms of his predecessors. Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and Secretary.
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