From July 1, China will remove or cut rebates for more than 2,800 items to curb the excessive growth in exports, ease frictions with its trading partners and slow energy-intensive industries, the finance ministry said Tuesday.

Analysts believe China's trade surplus could pass 320 billion dollars by the end of the year if current growth is continued, 10 times the level of 2004, adding to tensions with the United States and the European Union.

Stephen Green, chief economist at Standard Chartered bank based in Shanghai, said the move was a genuine attempt by the Chinese to tame its exports, but it was unclear whether it would dent the bulging surplus.

"Our initial calculations show the total amount of trade they have rescinded is much less than five percent of total trade," he said.

"But this is not just window dressing. They are serious about trying to bring down the surplus. In an ideal world they would like to (do more), but these industries are job creating, so they have to walk this fine line.

"(The move on) aluminium products is huge. Leather is a big export industry, plastic and rubber are also being brought down. These are all significant."

One tranche of 553 products classified as "highly energy-consuming and resource-intensive" will have their tax rebate removed, the ministry statement said. They include cement, fertiliser, and non-ferrous metals.

A further 2,268 products which China thinks can easily trigger trade frictions -- such as toys, clothes, steel products and motorcycles -- have had their rebates lowered.

Li Yushi, deputy director with the commerce ministry's Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, said a more serious overhaul would be needed to reduce the overall surplus and the move could hit some consumers.

"Trade surplus is a long-term, structural problem. It is impractical to expect to solve the problem in a short period," Li told AFP.

"It's hard to predict the impact on prices as the companies would have to negotiate with their buyers respectively, but it's certainly a reason for raising prices given the higher costs."

Li said exporters of consumer products such as textile and toys, where the profit margin is relatively thin, would face the strongest pressure to increase prices.

Huang Yiping, a Hong Kong-based Citigroup economist, said that heavy industries, where global competition was not as strong, would be more likely to pass on the costs to the buyer.

"I think the resource-intensive exporters are more likely to increase their prices," he said.

Nevertheless, Li said the lower and abolished rebates would have some positive impacts for China.

"The move is aimed to urge companies to improve their technologies... and provoke fewer trade disputes, which is good for export growth in the long term," Li said.

The total trade surplus in the first five months jumped 83.2 percent from a year earlier to 85.72 billion dollars, according to the government data released earlier this month.

Both the United States and the EU have introduced tariffs and other measures to try and reduce their trading imbalance with China. US officials also accuse China of keeping the yuan artificially low to make exports unfairly cheap.

The latest move follows the imposition or raising of export tariffs on 142 types of goods -- including some steel products -- which was introduced on June 1.