Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1077 Tue. June 12, 2007  
   
Business


Huge deficit financing major risk in curbing inflation
Unnayan Onneshawn says
Since huge deficit financing from the domestic sources would impose further constraints on monetary authority to fight against inflation, the budget for the

2007-08 fiscal would make the macroeconomic problem -- fiscal and monetary -- worrisome with further income inequality, observed a post-budget analysis released by Unnayan Onneshawn, a local research organisation.

"The GDP growth rate has been set at 7 percent for the upcoming fiscal, which is likely to be an ambitious target if the price spiral continues to upward given that other things remain constant," the report said, according to a press release.

It also noted that the finance adviser, who has little to do with inflation (as the monetary authority is key functionary here), has championed to curb inflation at

6.5 percent for the next fiscal with some sporadic measures like tariff withdrawal on few essential commodities.

Though withdrawal of tariff on crude edible oil and lentil and continuation of duty-free benefit on essential commodities, including rice, wheat, onion and pulses, would give a respite to the commoners, there is no reason to belief that this measure would lead to a drastic price cut on essentials, the report pointed out.

"Instead, sooner or later this price would be adjusted as taka against dollar continues to depreciate given the increasing dependency on imported items" it added.

The Unnayan Onneshawn report observes that low and middle-income group would continue to bear the brunt of government's further dependence on indirect taxation scheme (the assumption is that as the indirect tax is more elastic to GDP than direct tax i.e.

if GDP increases revenue from indirect tax increases faster than direct tax) for its revenue collection.

Moreover, the apprehension is that the proposed withdrawal of infrastructure development surcharge on finished products and withdrawal of zero duty on capital machineries and increased tariff on industrial raw materials and semi products would lead the domestic industry to death knell as they would lose the competitiveness with the imported finished products, it said.