Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1058 Thu. May 24, 2007  
   
Point-Counterpoint


How will history remember the Blair era?


After months of speculation by the media, Tony Blair announced last Thursday that he would step down from the party leadership and British Prime Ministership on June 27, having been a decade in power. In a farewell speech to his followers at his home constituency in the northern election district, Blair maintained that "he did what he thought was right" and was confident that his country, despite "all its faults" and "myriad of unresolved problems and fresh challenges," would be "proud of its past and confident of its future."

How will history judge Blair, a remarkable, charismatic and bold leader, as the "British Clinton?" As a prodigy who revived a feckless Labour party, guided the British economic boom, oversaw profound social changes in a class-conscious nation, and restored multilingual London's status as a global financial center? Or, as an American poodle who sacrificed his immense popularity at home to join President Bush on the ill-fated US-led invasion of Iraq?

The Iraq war will largely taint his otherwise remarkable achievements in Britain's political, economic and social arena. Blair's political calculations, which were so often correct in the first half of his rule, were utterly wrong on the Iraq invasion, and ultimately isolated him from his people and brought down his approval numbers.

Why Blair joined this senseless war will intrigue historians for decades. Furthermore, the Iraq war, fought at an enormous human and material cost, has created new divides between Britain and its traditional European allies and friends.

However, in all fairness, Blair must be credited for moving Britain forward in ways that other European leaders never did. Britain's economy and image improved remarkably compared to France and Germany. In fact, the newly elected Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidential campaign largely on Bair-style promises of sweeping reforms to boost the moribund French economy.

In foreign policy, Blair, despite his serious miscalculations on Iraq, was quite effective. He was in the forefront on the war against the Al Qaeda militants in Afghanistan, and sent troops to Kosovo and Sierra Leone to stop killings and remove ruthless rulers.

He was the prime mover of the G-8 leaders' decision to write off debts of African least developed countries to the tune of about $ 50 billion, and the European leaders' decision to grant duty free and quota free access to LDC products to EU markets. Along with the outgoing French president Chirac, he had initiated the move to raise a European army to reduce their total dependence on Nato forces.

Even last week he reached a power sharing deal in Northern Ireland with a view to ending the strife there. On the international scene, he had consistently made an effort to forcefully project British power and ideals.

He made no secret of his belief in military power "to reorder the world," as he once put it. Yes, his firm and prompt response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US and his role in the war against the Al Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan were supported by his people, but they became rather skeptical when he enthusiastically joined the US led invasion of Iraq. Blair could neither explain the rationale for the Iraq war to them, nor could he explain the link between the 9/11 attacks and the Iraq war.

Before handing over power to his successor, almost certainly the Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, Blair intends to attend the EU and International Summit Meetings in June, undertake official trips to France, Africa and the United States, and also push forward some important bills through the Parliament.

At home, Blair substantially improved British public health, education and transportation systems so that they could at least keep pace with the growing demands. The financial disciplines pushed by Thatcher and successive Tory Governments have been softened on social justice. His enlightened stands on same sex marriage, climate change, and even on fox hunting, have been widely appreciated.

In his farewell speech last week, Blair said: "there is only one government since 1945 that can say all of the following: more jobs, fewer unemployed, better health and education results, lower crime, and economic growth every quarter, this one."

His political rivals, the Tories, assailed his record on public services and credibility. "There has been so much spin in that, the word of government is less believed than at any other time," said William Hague, the conservative foreign affairs spokesman. Nonetheless, though Iraq will continue to haunt his record, future historians just cannot overlook Blair's achievements.

Gordon Brown, in many ways, is the antithesis of Tony Blair. He is serious not jovial, methodical rather than deft, and introverted, not extroverted. In his drive to become the next British prime minister, he conceded: "mistakes have been made" in the war in Iraq and predicted that "the emphasis will shift" from military action towards political reconciliation and economic development in the coming months.

Brown's launching speech last week was clearly designed to draw a line between himself and Blair, his closest political ally, but also his fiercest rival. He took joint credit for the achievements of the decade long Labour government. At the same time, he distanced himself from Blair's Iraq policy which had brought down the latter's popularity.

Experts say Brown will maintain "special ties" with Washington, but he will be reluctant to support the ongoing Iraq war, though he may not go for a rapid British pullout. He gave a broad hint last week that he would be "Governing in a different way," and would like to involve and engage people to meet the newer challenges that his country faces. What he ultimately does in reality is another story.

Syed Muazzem Ali is a former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh.
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