India is a nuclear power, possesses a large army (1.3 million), and has been growing economically at 8-9% percent over the past two years. Its GDP stands at $775 billion, which is the second largest among 147 developing countries. Its high-tech service sector constitutes half of the GDP.

Against this background, it is understandable that India wants to be represented permanently at the UN Security Council. In 2005, its attempt to obtain a permanent seat in the Council was not successful due to opposition of some veto-carrying permanent members of the Council (believed to be US and China). Naturally, India was disappointed.

The Security Council comprises of 15 members, five permanent (UK, US, France, China and Russia) and ten non-permanent members. Non-permanent members are elected for two years. Every year, five non-permanent member-countries are elected through a rolling election process. Typically, their term starts on January 1.

The process of choosing members to represent the five regions of the world (Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Western Europe, and others including Eastern Europe) is a complicated one, involving a modicum of consensus within the region about the country to be supported for the non-permanent seat. The current ten non-permanent members are Panama, Italy, Belgium, Indonesia, South Africa, Congo, Ghana, Peru, Qatar, and Slovakia.

Indonesia replaced Japan this year. India wishes to contest the Council's seat in 2010 from the Asian region, replacing Indonesia. Bangladesh was a member of the Security Council twice -- the first time in 1979-80 and the second in 2000-2001.

At one stage, India was not interested in the non-permanent member's seat because it felt that its chance for seeking a seat as a permanent member would be compromised. But when it saw that Japan became a non-permanent member, it revised its earlier decision. It is believed that India's prime minister took the decision while visiting Japan last December, and that India had consultations with Japan on this issue.

Two views within India
There is a view that if India contests the election for a seat of non-permanent member, much of the agenda on permanent membership becomes weak. India would be seen as settling for number the lower seat at the Council.

The other view is that India has no chance of getting a permanent seat. The support for this view is strengthened by the fact that:

India currently contributes just 0.4 per cent of the UN budget, and its clout is not much. Last year, India lost goodwill by nominating Shashi Tharoor as a candidate for the post of secretary general and until the Kashmir dispute is resolved, Pakistan is likely to attempt to derail India's chances.

Therefore, India should be realistic and contest for a non-permanent member's seat.

India's strategy
India knows that Kazakhastan and Thailand are the only two candidates that have declared their intention to contest the seat in 2010. India's initial intention was to contest in 2009, but since Lebanon had already announced its candidature, it deferred it to 2010. Pakistan has chosen 2011 for its bid. If India wins in 2010 and Pakistan wins in 2011, then they would together be in the Council in 2012, the second time since 1984.

Tradition has it that countries announce their intention years in advance, making it known to other countries in the region and outside. For example, Bahrain wants to contest in 2029, the United Arab Emirates in 2021, and Yemen in 2017.

India claims that it, by itself, has more people than all of Africa with 53 countries as well as the Americas with 35 nations. To ignore the population criterion of representation as permanent member in the Council seems odd to India, and the formula for representation should be changed.

However, the raising of the number of seats in the Security Council seems to be far away, until major players, including the five permanent members, agree. Only then will India have a chance to get into the Council as a permanent member, but without veto-power. Until that occurs, India has to be satisfied with a non-permanent seat at the Council. Although a win in the non-permanent seat will not strengthen its candidature for a permanent seat, a loss could have implications for India's standing.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.