Bangladesh capital market: Expect good things to come
Asif Anwar
The future of Bangladesh capital market has taken a dramatic positive turn over the last few months, in line with the country as a whole, following developments in the political arena. The new government has already proven that it is serious about eradicating corruption and putting an end to the kind of politics and politicians who kept our country hostage since independence. Now we can really look forward to achieving our potential with a human capital of 150 million people, and a vast reserve of untapped natural resources. Bangladesh has been registering average GDP growth of 6% a year whilst being the most corrupt nation on earth. We can expect double digit growth in the coming years now that many of the leaders of "Corruption Inc." are behind bars or on the run. It would be naïve to think that Bangladesh will become a corruption free country in the near future, but given the steps already taken, it can be assumed that she will not make the Top Ten on the corruption list again. Both the Index and the volume of the stock exchanges shot up following the "takeover" of the new government. The Index did suffer a correction later, but volume maintained a healthy surge indicating a positive trend. This is a very bullish sign for any market, but unfortunately, somewhat misunderstood in our country. Recently, I found myself chatting with a member of the Dhaka Stock Exchange at a social gathering where our topic turned to the market soon after basic pleasantries were exchanged. He tried to assure me that the market price of a large group of listed companies has remained stable, in response to my bearish comment on that group. When I countered asking him if it would be possible to buy or sell a large chunk of the company around the market price, he realized the value of volume. As in any pre-emerging markets, the DSE has been dominated by retail investors whose understanding of the stock exchange is limited to profit only. As a result, demonstrations have been taken out when it looked like someone could suffer a loss because the market was not going up anymore. What is more shocking is, in many instances, the authorities tried to control the market direction in response to the hue and cry of the retail investors. Fortunately, as the market grows, the dominant players of the future will be institutions, rather than individuals, who understand the capital market and are in for the long term. This is a trend that is already in motion, and that is why, I expect Bangladesh to be best performing market over the next five years in terms of growth in market capitalization and volume. I am not predicting the direction of the Index because market players know that a market going down may turn just as profitable as a market going up, as long as liquidity is no concern. There are still many aspects of the capital market that are in need of serious reform. The SEC needs to be significantly strengthened, urgently. Transparency, accounts, and corporate governance of the listed companies are below any standards. Plans need to be in place now to introduce a proper debt market, derivatives market, and a commodities market in the future. The initiatives taken by the current government in bringing about positive changes in the public and private sectors hopefully will trickle down to the capital market in time. However, we need to develop a strong pool of human capital for the financial services sector, currently unavailable, to really reap the benefits of a booming capital market of the future. The writer is a Financial Markets Professional.
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