Straight Talk
This isn't 1990
Zafar Sobhan
For what it's worth, I have some free advice for the Awami League leadership: don't bail out the BNP. The temptation to turn the clock back to 1990 when a combined AL-BNP led people's movement succeeded in ousting H.M. Ershad from office and paved the way for the restoration of democracy in 1991 (Bangladesh's Fourth Republic) is considerable. But nothing would be more harmful, both to the Awami League's interests and those of the nation. The BNP, of course, has figured out that joining forces with the AL would work to its benefit, hence Khaleda's opportunistic greetings to Hasina on the latter's return to the country. It is perfectly understandable why the BNP, with its stock sinking lower every day, would seek to join hands with the same party that it has spent the past five years belittling and demeaning. But such an accommodation or alliance would be rank folly on the part of the AL. Having faced down the ban on returning to the country, AL leader Sheikh Hasina is now once again in the ascendancy. The ill-conceived and ham-fisted efforts of the interim government to keep her out of the country have back-fired quite spectacularly and created sympathy even in quarters where she had none before. Hasina has played the situation with skill, with a well-orchestrated media campaign that was capped by a polished and statesmanlike appearance on al-Jazeera with David Frost. Whoever has been advising her and guiding her strategy since she left the country in March has done a good job. Hasina's triumphant return, which was greeted by a several thousand-strong cheering crowd in a show of support that was both impressive but also admirably restrained, and her moderate and conciliatory statements since she has returned, have only increased the current tide in her favour. Similarly, the government's misguided decision to file cases against the thousands who turned out to greet her arrival, will only further enhance the AL's reputation, while at the same time diminishing that of the government. Which leads to the question of what the AL should do at this stage in the game, how it should play out its hand. Neither the current caretaker government nor its backers in the army have any desire to remain in charge for very long. They want an exit strategy. Until earlier this month, Prof. Yunus provided a plausible one. If he had been successful in putting together a political party, such a formation might have been competitive in the upcoming elections. Certainly, had AL and BNP been decapitated and decimated, Prof. Yunus's party might have emerged as a realistic contender. Now the calculus is different. Prof. Yunus has withdrawn from the political battle-field, and it seems reasonably clear that the AL is not going to go quietly. Not that this should have come as a surprise to anyone. The party has been in existence, through thick and thin, for almost 60 years, and has withstood many attempts to break it or split it in the past. And it retains a hold and continues to command the loyalty of a very large number of Bangladeshis. There are internal divisions, to be sure, and much dead wood that needs to be cleared out, but the AL could well emerge from the current situation in decent shape. Indeed, many party workers and activists feel that this is a golden opportunity to rid the party of its more troublesome and undesirable elements and completely clean house from top to bottom. Now is the time for the party to institute its own internal reforms. If it is seen to do this, then it will certainly enhance its acceptability, both to the general public and to the interim government and its backers. This kind of reform is less possible for the BNP to accomplish, due to the fact that for BNP the rot goes far deeper and that the party's first family is so implicated in its wrong-doings. The truth is that, despite efforts to paint them with the same brush, there is a world of difference between the two parties. Yes, the AL has its fair share of corrupt and criminal elements, and suffers from many of the same deficiencies as the BNP (e.g. a culture of sycophancy, unresponsiveness to public opinion, etc). But the BNP is something else again. This is a party that burns down the homes of those with the temerity to defect from it. This is a party that has taken corruption to a completely different level. This is a party either unwilling or unable to clamp down on the sponsors and supporters of terror. And, most damning of all, this is a party that is unwilling to let democracy take its course, and made every effort to rig the abortive January elections, which is why we are here in the first place. Don't get me wrong. The AL are no angels. But, for all their crimes and misdemeanors, in comparison to the immediate past elected government, they bear relatively less blame for the state the nation finds itself in today. Right now, with Tarique Rahman in jail and more details of the misdeeds of the past five years coming to light every day, the BNP remains in serious trouble. The only thing that can save them now is the AL. The AL, to my mind, has made a tactical mistake by suggesting that things are no better today than they were on January 10 and in identifying the current government as its principal adversary. The truth is that things are far better than they would have been had the BNP returned to power following a rigged election. Ultimately, I think it would be a mistake for the AL to take the line that the interim government is illegitimate and that the anti-crime and anti-corruption drives are little more than motivated undertakings. A better tactic would be to say that, yes, it is important to clean up politics, but that the BNP should be the main target. To agree with the interim government that far-reaching reform and a thorough cleansing of the system are necessary after the shambles of the past five years. To point to the BNP and say: they're the ones you want, not us. Why the AL would want to stand shoulder to shoulder with the BNP and lend them its current credibility and popularity is beyond me. A better approach would be to put pressure on the government to really go after the crooks and criminals. The simple fact of the matter is that the BNP were in power for the last five years -- the bulk of the corruption that has crippled the country has been BNP corruption and the BNP will bear the brunt of the clean-up. A coordinated movement with the BNP, identifying the current government as the real danger, would be a blunder of epic proportions. If such a movement were to succeed, then, at the end of the day, the BNP will have effectively been rehabilitated, since the rhetoric of the movement will be that the interim government's clean up was nothing more than a partisan witch-hunt. At the rate things are going, AL will be in much better shape for the next elections, whenever they will be held. The AL would have won a fair election on January 22 and, with Tarique in jail and the BNP on the run, a reformed AL will be in a good position to triumph at the polls. That would be the smart game-plan. Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.
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