Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1043 Wed. May 09, 2007  
   
Point-Counterpoint


Sarkozy's reform package


France has just held its presidential elections. The centre-right Union for Popular Movement (UMP) candidate Nicholas Sarkozy has secured the 18th Century Elysee Palace for the next five years. The swearing-in ceremony will take place on May 16.

The presidential election in France is unique in many ways. If a candidate wins more than 50% vote in the first round, then there is no call for a second round. But that has hardly happened, because the first round always had several candidates and none secured more than 50% vote, hence, the second round with the top two contenders.

However, it has to be remembered that leading in the first round does not guarantee ultimate success. Twice in the last five elections -- 1974 and 1995 -- the first-round winners lost the run-off. In 1974, Francois Mitterand led in the first round and lost to Valery Giscard d'Estaing in the second round, and in 1995 Lionel Jospin led in the first round and lost to Jacques Chirac in the run off.

There is a saying in France that in the first round people "vote with their hearts," and in the second round they "vote with their heads."

The first round was held on April 22, in which 12 candidates raced to reach the top two slots. While nearly 85% of 44.5 million voters cast their ballots -- the first round produced interesting results.

The former interior minister Nicholas Sarkozy (UMP), got 31.1% votes, while the socialist candidate Ms Segolene Royal (Socialist Party) obtained 25.8% votes. The centrist candidate Francois Byrou (Union for French Democracy - UDF) came up with 18.6%.

According to the rules of the game, the run-off between the two top candidates -- Sarkozy and Royal -- was held on May 6, in a classic right-left electoral battle. Between the first round and the run-off, the two candidates tried desperately to win over the vote bank of Francois Byrou, which was a significant 7 million.

Though Sarkozy was leading in the IFOP opinion polls (April 29) with 52.5 percentage points over Royal's 47.5% -- there was no let-up in the campaign. While Sarkozy tried to maintain his lead, Royal wanted to close the gap.

In the fiercely contested run-off, Sarkozy pulled off victory with 53% against Royal's 47%. The voter turnout of 85.5%, the highest in several decades, reflected how polarized the polity was. Chauvinist France rejected the first ever woman presidential candidate. The Socialist Party lost the presidential election for the third time in a row. There will be serious soul searching in the Socialist Party now.

Segolene Royal does not hold any important position in the Socialist Party. Socialist Party Secretary General Francois Holland was at one time the likely choice to become the presidential candidate. But bickering within the Socialist camp threw Holland's charming partner (not wife) Segolene Royal to the forefront in summer 2005. Royal had served as minister in Mitterand's cabinet. She was elected to parliament in 1988.

Byrou, interestingly, has emerged as a political heavyweight, and is likely to win a significant number of seats in the National Assembly at the general elections in June. He will most likely become the leader of the opposition, a position currently held by Francois Holland, the General Secretary of the Socialist Party.

Both the candidates were locked in a bitter campaign, with each trying to undermine the other with propaganda and personal attacks. Now that the elections are over, many would be keenly watching how Sarkozy leads the Fifth Republic. His first task will be to unify the polarized nation. Victory celebrations in Paris turning into riots after the declaration of results proves that the nation is ideologically divided.

Nicholas Sarkozy is the son of an Hungarian immigrant and French mother of Greek-Jewish descent. Divorced and remarried, he has two sons from his first wife and a young son from his second marriage. He also has two stepdaughters from his wife's first marriage. Sarkozy studied law at the University of Paris and is a lawyer. Born in 1955, he is from the new generation of French leaders which does not carry the baggage of the World Wars.

Sarkozy joined politics quite early and became Mayor of Neuilly-sur-Seine, a wealthy Parisian suburb, in 1983 at the age of 28. He was elected to the parliament in 1988 and got his ministerial portfolio in 1993. Between 2002 and 2007 he served the Chirac government as finance minister and then as interior minister.

He is the Leader of UMP, which has the majority in the National Assembly, and is known for his tough stand on crime and immigration. The Left accuse Sarkozy of being a conservative leader, while others say he is a pragmatist. Hyperactive Sarkozy announced his candidature for the presidency in late 2004. The president-elect is described as a determined and focused person.

Sarkozy has taken the reins of France at a time when the sixth largest economy of the world is not doing too well. French GDP in 2006 was $ 1.9 trillion at a growth rate of 2.1%. Unemployment remains high, and there are serious worries over immigration and law and order.

Welfare and social security issues also have to be addressed seriously. Externally, he will have to focus on and redefine three major foreign policy issues -- the European Union, the relations with US, and French connection with Africa.

National issues
With regard to the economy, Sarkozy has promised the following measures:

  • National public debt in 2006 was 64.7% of GDP, i.e. $ 1.210 trillion. Sarkozy wants to cut it down to 60% of GDP over the next five years. This means that either there will be a cut in government expenditure, or there will be more taxes.
  • Exempting overtime income (i.e. beyond the 35-hour workweek) from tax and social security charges, thereby returning almost $ 90 billion per annum back to the people. Sarkozy is encouraging France to work more and earn more. This strategy, he thinks, will encourage higher incomes leading to more consumption, and also provide incentive to new domestic investment.
  • Making the employment law flexible to create more jobs. It may be recalled that in April 2006, Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin almost lost his job when he introduced the CPE (Contrat Première Embauche -- first employment contract). The CPE had provisions that allowed an employer to dismiss a new employee within the first two years, without showing any reason. Under the existing law, an employer cannot terminate a contract unless he pays a hefty compensation to the employee. Young students and the labour organisations fought street battles for three weeks all over France, and compelled Villepin to withdraw the CPE. Sarkozy wants to reintroduce the CPE with some modifications to encourage employers to hire more people. Many feel that flexibility in "hire and fire" can reduce the unemployment figures, which now stands at 9.1% of the labour force of nearly 28 million (2006).
  • Reforming the Social Welfare scheme, so that those retiring from the private sector get similar pension benefits to those of the public sector. This will of course require huge funds, which Sarkozy has not indicated from where he will get.
  • French industries will have to be made more innovative and efficient -- albeit under protection. Here Sarkozy's conservative colours look very prominent.

Sarkozy has made some very tough remarks regarding the law and order situation in France. It may be recalled that in Autumn 2005 serious rioting broke out in a suburb of Paris over the death of two young immigrants. The month long rioting spread all over France, and cost some 20,000 vehicles burnt or destroyed.

Sarkozy blamed the delinquent immigrant communities (from Africa and the Magreb) for the lawlessness. He intends to impose strict sentences for repeat offenders, and tougher sentences for juvenile delinquents. He has already made clear that his government will be tough on illegal immigrants.

One remembers Sarkozy's campaign quote, which summarizes his attitude towards the immigrant population: "In France a politician is not allowed to say that a hoodlum is a hoodlum, and scum is scum." (Toulouse, April 2007).

External issues
Jacques Chirac's presidency received a harsh jolt when the disenchanted French electorate decisively rejected the European Constitutional Treaty (TCE) at the referendum of May 29, 2005. Chirac, during the remaining two years, did not try to revive this issue for fear of popular unrest.

Sarkozy cannot afford to sit on this crucial issue. He proposes to submit a reduced treaty -- confined to institutional matters, such as the duration of EU presidency and creation of a post of Minister for European Affairs. Here Sarkozy may face stiff opposition from all the capitals that have already ratified the TCE.

Besides, Sarkozy plans to push the mini-treaty through the French National Assembly, not through referendum. Here, too, he is likely to face tough opposition from his own compatriots. Sarkozy explains that the mini-treaty will provide a modus operandi for the European Union to work together.

On other European issues -- Sarkozy does not want Turkey as full member of EU, but as a strategic partner. He also wants a pause in further enlargement of the EU now that Romania and Bulgaria have joined, raising the total to 27.

Sarkozy will have to do a lot of work, particularly with Britain and Germany, before he can really establish a working equation and push all the other 26 members of the European Union to see things his way. Every capital of EU feels the necessity of creating an integrated European block to be economically more competent -- to grapple with the issues of globalization and the challenges posed by nations such as US and China.

Gaullist Chirac had followed an independent foreign policy. Chirac's departure from, and Sarkozy's entry into, the Elysee Palace will probably clear the air with Washington. French foreign policy, at least in the perception of Washington, is marked by "arrogance." During the election campaign Sarkozy defended Chirac's policy over Iraq. But, in September 2006, he visited Washington to befriend the White House.

Photographs with President Bush caused some embarrassment to him during the election campaign. The French did not approve of Sarkozy's attempt to woo Washington. However, in his victory speech, Sarkozy assured Washington of French friendship. He, however, added that amongst friends you could agree and sometimes disagree. One will have to wait and see how that friendship unfolds.

Francophone Africa remains France's exclusive zone of influence since the early 60s. Chirac's personal friendship with African leaders, including the notorious ones, has earned France special commercial advantages over the decades.

Many of those leaders have not lived up to European standards of human rights, democracy or accountability. Sarkozy will need to come out of the shadow of Chirac and look at these privileged relations, and probably redefine them. In the victory speech, he spoke of helping the African countries in fighting disease, hunger and poverty.

France has a highly politicized and educated polity. It has shown its impatience and restlessness when it came to serious reforms. The French, particularly the younger generation, will wait to give Sarkozy enough time to deliver.

Sarkozy will do well not to forget the student uprisings in 1968 and, most recently, the riots of Autumn 2005 and Spring 2006. The success of Sarkozy's government will depend on the nature of his reform manifesto. Unpopular drastic policy changes can take a serious toll of his new government.

Mahmood Hasan is former Ambassador and Secretary.
Picture