In this game of bluff and threat of street power and shutdown, will her advisers tell her to accept a certain level of irregularities in order to participate in a flawed election and still win?

In a scenario of no elections and a military takeover, as indicated in the London Economist magazine this month, the Awami League cannot win.

The League needs an election. It has become common currency that the Islamist-BNP alliance is falling apart and cannot even command the loyalty of former dictator Ershad's support. The writing is on the wall. They will be trounced at the polls.

Any miraculous BNP victory in January will simply not be believed and will be brought down by people power almost immediately.

BNP II, otherwise known as LDP (and previously Bikalpadhara) will get its revenge and propel the Awami League to power, by splitting the BNP vote in a dozen constituencies. The Jamaat must fear a complete meltdown. Will that be the final nail in the coffin of the ludicrous idea of an Islamist takeover? Nevertheless, think tanks in the US still consider 2011 the danger period for such an eventuality.

That seems very far away when seen through the lenses of the typical decision maker in Dhaka. All minds are concentrated on the two ladies, their families and associated sycophants. To some it will be reminiscent of the negotiations in early 1971 when miscalculations led to tragedy and ultimately liberation and then government by ill-prepared leaders.

2007 will see no "civil war," even though some excitable politicians like to allude to that threat and we will see no liberation from the clutches of an incompetent elite.

It boils down to this: either the politicos carve out a decent path to some kind of election (to which Jimmy Carter can sign off to) and abide by the result or they must kiss goodbye to power for a few years.

Since politicos are geared to making money while in office, in one sense one could say that their greed could save democracy. Do they really want to miss out on the commissions to be earned dishing out licenses? Now that BNP ministers have bought apartments in London and New York, surely it is the turn of the opposition.

Of course that means nothing to ordinary people as they will suffer more years of inept government, but at least we can say we still have parliamentary democracy.

So one expects the Awami League to play poker, take us to the hilt and then dutifully engage in an electoral rather than street contest.

The danger is that they will enjoy the theatre and processions of ambassadors amid media speculation and overplay their hand.

If they do, that will be the end of the Awami League.

The warning by Dr Kamal Hossain to the opposition in 2005 is going unheeded. In sum, he advised them not to rock the boat so much that it tips over and everyone sinks. Witnessing the swift nature of military coups, he knows, like others of his generation, that politicians are playing with fire, and invariably get burnt.

While Bangladesh seems to have a remarkable capacity in muddling through despite political standoffs, we must acknowledge that the situation is serious. These are not ordinary days.

What strikes me is how we seem to be enjoying the show while ignoring the issues raised by so many powerless people.

Who now talks about the widespread protests in the critical garments industry in the summer of discontent? Where is the debate about tens of millions of farmers and the landless? What about the hundreds of thousands of rickshaw and auto-rickshaw pullers and drivers in Dhaka? Threatened with expulsion they have always seen off weak governments. They are unlikely to retain their livelihood in the face of an iron fist. Will an Awami League regime be able to provide 2000 extra megawatts of electricity as a fitting tribute to those protestors shot dead in Kansat?

Is it not strange that hardly anything has been said about just what we are going to do with the gas and coal that lies under the surface?

All strategic issues are being ignored while we lie trapped in short term tactical ploys.

The quicker this show is over, the better. One way or the other.

Farid Bakht is based in London.