The very good news is that H5N1 bird flu virus responsible for all the current outbreaks has not mutated to a form which can easily infect humans. So humans generally are not in danger, unless they are in continuous close contact with poultry (for example, poultry farm workers and shopkeepers selling live chickens). Bird flu is still primarily a disease of chickens, not humans. But we cannot be complacent. Even if it only infects chickens and does not affect a single human, the disease certainly has the ability to wreck Bangladesh's poultry industry. This will impact on the millions of people directly or indirectly supported by chicken farming across Bangladesh.

The government needs to implement an outbreak management plan. Such a plan has been written, but little implementation is visible and practically nothing has been publicized. The first requirement of a bird flu action plan is monitoring for infections; supposedly this is already being done by BRAC in cooperation with the government. Apparently BRAC has already gathered thousands of samples for testing. The results of all these tests are not being announced, however, apparently because everyone is afraid of a panic at the news that bird flu tests are even being conducted. However, this is the wrong approach. The best way to avoid a panic is to reassure the public that the government has a bird flu action plan and is implementing it properly. The relevant government departments should be updating the public regularly as to how many samples are being collected and tested.

In case of a confirmed H5N1 infection in a poultry farm, the standard practice to contain the outbreak is to cull all poultry (including household chickens and ducks) within 3 km, and vaccinate and intensively monitor the birds within the next 7 km. One problem with this is that the government still has no stocks of vaccines, and is unlikely to get them anytime soon. Also, in India the government apparently decided that they could not effectively vaccinate and monitor such a large area, and so culled all birds within 10 km. This strategy seems to have been effective, as the Indian outbreaks seem to have been controlled. So we should also consider culling in a radius of 10 km, particularly until the government acquires sufficient stocks of vaccines. Given the current international demand, it will probably be weeks or months before sufficient vaccines are acquired.

Culling birds during an outbreak raises the bigger problem of farmer compensation; farmers generally won't agree to hand over their chickens unless compensated for them. So the government had previously suggested that donors give it enough funds to compensate Tk 200 per chicken. However, Tk 200 is a lot to pay per chicken, especially when lakhs of them will in all likelihood have to be culled. A more rational compensation rule needs to be arrived at, depending on the type and age of the chicken.

The first sort of farmed chicken in Bangladesh are broilers (which produce meat). The cost of each broiler to a farmer is between Tk 30 (for a young bird) and Tk 80 (for a mature one). As the bird gets older, it consumes more feed and becomes more valuable. Given that any culling will involve a large number of broiler flocks of various ages, an average compensation of around Tk 55 could be considered. Alternatively, the government could fix two prices; a lower one of about Tk 45 for smaller birds (less than 750 g), and another of about Tk 70 for larger ones. Some farmers with older flocks will still lose some money, but the loss will not be much; once an outbreak happens, chicken prices will plummet and the market value of a grown broiler will probably be much less than Tk 55.

The second sort of farmed chickens are layers (which produce eggs). They can usually be easily distinguished from broilers as they are raised in cages. These are worth about Tk 30 for young birds and about Tk 160 at 17 weeks, after which they start repaying in the form of eggs. So the maximum investment in a layer is Tk 160, and this is the maximum compensation which can be considered. So the for layers the simplest compensation scheme could provide an average compensation of (30+160)/2 = Tk 95. However, this pays too much to farmers with young flocks. A better solution is to pay only about Tk 45 for small birds and perhaps Tk 120 for larger ones. Again, farmers with older flocks and more money invested will lose some money; but some loss is inevitable in a bird flu situation.

There is one final type of farmed chicken, namely breeders. These are owned by hatcheries, and lay fertilized eggs which are hatched into chicks. Breeders are basically extremely valuable layers; typically, each one would typically be worth about Tk 350 by the time it started laying. Probably the reason for the government's proposal of Tk 200 compensation per chicken was based on an average value which included breeders, layers and broilers. However, breeder farms raise chickens in closed sheds under conditions of tight bio-security; as a result, they practically never experience bird flu infections. Across the world, practically all outbreaks have been in broiler and layer sheds, which are open to the outside and easily infected. Also, breeder farms are run by large hatcheries who have enough funds and access to bank loans to manage their own flock culling losses. The government should save its compensation funds for the small farmers who really need it.

At least until October, when migratory birds return, the best bet is to prevent bird flu by stopping the import of Indian poultry. In spite of the government's instructions to the Bangladesh Rifles to monitor the borders carefully, there are still rumours of chicks being smuggled in from India, particularly at Burichang in Comilla district (on the Tripura border). These rumours need to be investigated. Venkateshwara Hatcheries Limited, the largest poultry company in India, has been served a show-cause notice in Maharashtra for covering up knowledge of the outbreak there and selling chickens which it knew might be infected. If they were desperate enough to sell such poultry in India, where the authorities have the power and jurisdiction to punish them, then it is frightening to think of what they would have exported to us. Bangladesh's ban on Indian imports may have saved us for the time being.

Zeeshan Hasan is director of one of the largest poultry hatcheries in Bangladesh.