Rainfall Outlook -2005
Dr. M Rashed Chowdhury University of Hawaii Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) has prepared this experimental Climate Outlook for Asia for July - December 2005. Of relevance in the preparation of this outlook is likelihood that the presently neutral El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions will remain neutral during the forecast periods. Such neutral, but above average, tropical Pacific conditions are indicated in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) predictions on which these climate forecasts are based. Slightly to somewhat warmer than average SSTs are now observed in the western and central tropical Pacific. Much of the Indian Ocean, and particularly the north tropical Atlantic Ocean, continue to show above-average SSTs. These are predicted to continue, but gradually weaken, during the next six months. Based on IRI's probability forecast of precipitation for the period of July-September 2005, there is a 25% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 40% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years in Bangladesh. This is, otherwise, a clear indication that Bangladesh may experience a normal to slightly deficient rainfall in the monsoon of 2005.
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. PHOTO: AFP |
