"The plan, if implemented, could be suicidal for the agriculture sector," a senior official in the Ministry of Agriculture told the news agency yesterday, reminding of the recent havoc wrought on agriculture by recurrent flooding across the country.

The concern emerged after the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on Sunday requested the Industries Ministry to stop operation of the Polash Urea Fertilizer Factory and scale down production for a month in other BCIC-run factories.

However, Industries Minister Matiur Rahman Nizami yesterday said the state-run fertilizer factories will not halt even in a low gas-flow condition.

"In no way production can be stopped," he told reporters at his office, replying to a question whether Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) would limit production amid low gas pressure.

But production in the factories cannot run even with less than 80 percent of required gas supply, bar Jamuna Fertilizer factory that can run with 70 percent gas supply.

And gas-supply shortfall means the same percentage of fertilizer production shortfalls. The energy ministry estimated that the rationing of gas would cause a production shortfall of 30,000 tons.

Agriculture ministry estimated a demand for 25 lakh tons of urea fertilizer for this year--some 2 lakh tons more than previous year's demand for 23 lakh tons.

Aggregate production target of the BCIC factories for the year is 19.30 lakh tons while the rest has been planned to import.

The rationing plan has been devised just before a crucial moment for agriculture when the factories are running full-scale to meet this year's enhanced demand.

Agriculture ministry officials said the farmers were intending to go for massive cropping to make up for their flood losses, creating the enhanced demand for the fertilizer.

The rationing of gas will also force the factories to operate at a lower pace than required to keep with the buffer-stock (2.60 lakh tons) schedule starting from the first week of December--thus increasing tension about availability of fertilizer in due time, officials feared.

The energy ministry, however, requested the industries ministry to limit production for 15-20 days, after which the gas-supply problem is expected to be over with the start of gas production in Srikail and Feni fields.

Energy ministry officials said the demand for gas increased due to enhanced domestic use for the month of Ramadan and Puja festival.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources preferred not to interrupt power generation, industrial production as well as "sensitive" domestic use.