Maoist rebels
The Maoist insurgency has seriously destabilised Nepal as the Tamil Tigers have done in Sri Lanka for the last twenty years. Once civil wars break out within a country, the nation suffers in many directions -- political, economic, and social. The rehabilitation of the displacement of innocent persons from the troubled-areas is a big headache for any government. There are also instances where some young displaced persons are recruited forcibly into guerilla armies.

In recent days, it has been reported that 22 security personnel and Maoist rebels have been killed in a prolonged battle in western Nepal. A ceasefire with rebels broke down last August. About 9,000 people have reportedly died in the eight years since the rebels began their fight for a communist republic, abolishing the monarchy, with a view to eliminating gross disparity between the rich and the poor. On July 6, it has been reported that the Deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikary promised renewed peace dialogue to end the insurgency. He told reporters that the new government was willing to have flexibility to resume peace talks with "an open mind."

Locally the Maoists are known as "Lal Sena" (Red Army). The Maoist guerillas, some in combat fatigues with red stars on their caps, others in woolen rags and thongs, attack police stations, banks, government offices, and Nepal's army personnel. The attackers are well-organised and often retreat to the mountains after attacks. They have started robbing travelers, menacing the vital tourist industry as well as the fragile multi-party democracy.

It is interesting to note that China has disowned the Maoist rebels. One Chinese spokesperson reportedly said : "We have no connection with them. Our party has no relationship with them. They must derive their doctrine from reading old manuals of guerilla war written by Mao."

The rebels call themselves "Maoist" because they follow the guidelines of Mao in winning popularity among rural people by being helpful to them. They also promise the poor people (70 per cent of Nepal's population of 24 million live below poverty line) that under their regime, the poor will benefit because they will abolish debts and confiscate private lands for re-distribution among the poor peasants.

With advice and training from Peru's "Shining Path" and Indian militant communist groups from Bihar, the Maoist insurgency has grown to nearly 5,000 guerillas. It has spread over more than half of the country's 75 districts. In the mid-western hills, they virtually control a few districts. The Maoists are funded and armed principally by theft and extortion mainly from businessmen.

Chinese help
General Thapa reportedly did not specify the kind of help he was seeking from China. The last time Nepal sought substantial military supplies from China was in 1987. China has not called the Maoists "terrorists," as have India and the US, which have provided arms to the Nepalese Army but "anti-government groups." In a meeting with Nepal's academics last month, China "think-tanks" urged Nepal to tackle the "root causes" of the rebellion and try to bring the rebels into the political mainstream.

China may have a specific gain in Nepal in return for its assistance. China disapproves of the current hostile activities of the Free Tibet Movement, including the presence of a representative of the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, and a reception center for Tibetans in Nepal. The center has been receiving many Tibetan refugees who secretly cross the border to join other Tibetan refugees in Dharmashala, in India. What China possibly wants in return for helping Nepal is that Kathmandu repatriates Tibetans to China and may close the Tibetan refugee reception center.

India's possible reaction
New Delhi regards Nepal as part of its sphere of influence. India's strategy in South Asia appears to be based on four pillars. First, no outside power should intervene on issues in the region without direct or indirect involvement of India. Second, all bilateral disputes should be settled by bilateral negotiations and India does not wish to see any involvement of a third party. Third, no neighbouring country should acquire sophisticated weapons that may pose threat to the security of India. Fourth, no neighbour may develop close a relationship with China (regional rival of India) and with big powers that may weaken India's security.

The above India's strategic policy came to play in 1987. When Nepal sought arms from China in that year, India cut the landlocked country's access to seaports, bringing the approach to China to a close. In 1998, India did not approve the signing of SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) between US and Bangladesh because it might lead to presence of US troops in Bangladesh. Consequently Bangladesh did not go through with the agreement with the US.

This time it is likely that India will not be comfortable with the idea that Nepal sought assistance from China. However political observers believe that given the thaw of bilateral relations between China and India, the Congress-led Singh government may not react as vehemently as it did in 1987.

Furthermore, following the visit of the former India's Prime Minister Vajpayee in June last year, Beijing and New Delhi have stepped up resolution of the disputed border (war was fought on this issue in 1962 and India was defeated). India's approach to Tibet is no more ambiguous as in the past. Vajpayee explicitly recognized Tibet as part of China. In return, China tacitly has recognized India's sovereignty in Sikkim, a former Buddhist Kingdom annexed by India in 1974, that is located between Nepal and Bhutan.

Conclusion
The reported approach to China for its help in putting down the Maoist insurgency in Nepal, if it is true, adds a new political and strategic dimension in South Asia. It will be interesting to watch how and in what way China and India would react to Nepal's request.

The bottom line appears to be that Nepal is a least-developed country. Its overwhelming majority of people live below the poverty line. Unless the government addresses the poverty situation with bold and imaginative reforms and actions, many believe that Maoists are likely to seriously threaten peace and tranquility in the country for foreseeable future. It is partly because they have established a popular base in rural areas. Any instability in Nepal is likely to have its impact in South Asia including Bangladesh and on India's north-eastern states where rebellion against the New Delhi rule has been going on for years.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.