Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 44 Sat. July 10, 2004  
   
Editorial


Post breakfast
Portugal's hour has come in Europe


One of the smaller states of Europe, Portugal has since the Second World War, lived in the shadow of her bigger neighbours France, Spain, Britain, Italy and Germany. The last few weeks have however belonged to Portugal. They successfully hosted the Euro-2004 football tournament, lost in the final, contrary to all expectations, but picked up the winner's cup in the political arena.

As Greece celebrates its magnificent and unexpected victory in football, Portugal can also most justifiably congratulate itself with the unanimous selection of her Prime Minister Jose Manuel Darilo Barroso by the governments of the enlarged European Union, as their candidate to be the next president of the European Commission. Head of Government in his country since April 2002, he has already impressed the European Commission with his dogged commitment to comply with the EU's growth and stability pact. The selection will now be presented to the European Parliament for their confirmation.

Here he will have to satisfy a large number of sceptical MEPs to be certain of a convincing majority when his nomination is put to a ratification vote. Analysts expect that the process might not be straight-forward. His nomination has been welcomed by the right of centre European People's Party, but the Liberals and in particular the Socialists and the Greens, have already made it clear they are not as yet convinced he is the right man for the job. Nevertheless, given the unanimous backing for his appointment by the 25 member states, the odds are heavily in favour of an eventual positive vote of endorsement by the European Parliament. If, however, Barroso emerges with a small and thus politically disabling majority, as happened with Jacques Santer ten years ago, it might prefigure for him many political problems and misfortunes in subsequent years.

To simply have survived the arcane, behind-closed-doors process by which the President of the European Commission is still chosen is itself a tribute to the resilience of the successful candidate. It was not surprising, therefore, that the Prime Minister of Portugal, did not entirely disguise his surprise when he emerged from the special meeting of the European Council in Brussels on the evening of 29 June as the "consensus" nominee of the 25 Member States to hold perhaps the most demanding of international posts.

The sheer relief of the EU Heads of Government, and above all of the Irish president of the European Council, Bertie Ahern, at having obtained an agreed candidate at all, was clearly eteched in the photos that appeared in different newspapers after the Summit meeting. No one, least of all Barroso, made any attempt to deny that he was not the first choice of most -- indeed almost any -- of the Member States. Nor was he the second or third or fourth favoured candidate. But -- in the end -- he was the candidate who evoked the least opposition from any of the different EU leaders. In this context it might be fair to claim that his nomination was by consensus.

The entire selection process reached deadlock over the rival candidacies of Guy Verhofstadt, Belgian Prime Minister, and Chris Patten, British EU Commissioner for External Affairs. Britain opposed the Belgian as being to federalist, while French President Chirac led the charge against Patten, saying the new President must come from a country involved in all European projects, including the Euro and the Schengen group (that has dismantled internal border controls). Britain, unfortunately does not subscribe to either of them.

After Verhofstadt and Patten withdrew, other names were mooted, including Javier Solana, Spanish EU foreign affairs Chief, Pat Cox, Irish President of the European Parliament and Peter Sutherland, former Director-General of WTO and currently head of Goldman Sachs. These candidates also perished due to different debatable criteria. Then came Jean Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, Denmark's Anders Fugh Rasmussen and Wolfgang Schussel of Austria. The wrangling continued amidst multiple qualification requirements till the least common denominator was identified and that was the Portuguese Prime Minister.

Barroso has himself humorously referred to the selection process having resembled a Papal conclave. The selection has not been universally popular in the countries whose candidates have lost and editorials are appearing in many newspapers urging reform in the selection mechanism. It is already being proposed that the process be made more open, democratic and more overtly political in five years time when the next selection of the President will be due.

Several countries have already suggested that the European political parties take their responsibilities seriously and present their preferred candidates for the Commission Presidency as part of their campaign for the 2009 European Parliament election. This, they believe, will crucially provide for involvement in a key decision by the voting public and it will also send a transparent signal of preferences to the European Council.

I believe that the forthcoming appointment of the Commission's President in the European Parliament and the possibility of differences of opinion there will only strengthen that Institution. This will enable the slowly emerging European proto-parties to flex their muscles. In particular, the Party of European Socialists and the Greens will definitely use this opportunity to display vigorous opposition in order to define their identity in the eyes of the vast European electorate with any eye to the next election.

In anticipation of the difficult test that he must pass in the European Parliament, Barroso is already using the press to reassure those who fear his record as a free market liberal and his support of the Untied States led war against Iraq. In this context, he has emphasised his commitment to continuing European integration, to the need for a "strong and independent" Commission with the sole right of initiative and his commitment to a strong "social" dimension in the future development of the Union. He has also acknowledged the bitter divisions created over the Iraq war but pledged himself to be a President for European unity.

The immediate challenge facing Marroso will be to safeguard his authority as Commission President designate to choose his own 25-strong Commission and to decide who is given which portfolio. Barroso in insisting that he has given "no formal guarantees" on the distribution of Portfolios to the different EU Heads of Government who are already lobbying for key posts to be given to their nationals. The question that will remain, will be whether he has made any "informal" promises.

Barroso must also now start to bargain with Member State governments over who is to be appointed to the Commission. It is assumed that most, if not all of the interim Commissioners from the accession states will be re-appointed. Barroso might however be well advised to insist that Member State government provide him not with a single name but a short list including women candidates from which he can choose who is best suited for which responsibility. One thing is most likely. He will probably select one Commissioner from Belgium (most probably their foreign Minister Louis Michel), given the fact that the Prime Minister of that country withdrew his nomination in Barros's favour.

The new President has many tough tasks ahead. Re-engineering the Commission will be one of them. Barroso will be entering unexplored territory when he is installed as the Commission President in November. The first question will deal with how many Vice Presidents will flank the President, and the Foreign Minister. There is a feeling that men and women appointed to the most senior posts (economic supremo, monetary policy, competition, social policy etc) should necessarily also be Vice-Presidents. Clearly that will be the case for Javier Solana, the new Foreign Minister, but it might make sense for the President to ensure oversight of some of the other large budget-heavy departments by separating the functions of Vice-President from responsibility for the other key dossiers.

He will also have to make sure the EU enlargement stays on course and will have to prepare for difficult negotiations with Turkey. He will also have to referee the coming EU budgetary battle between EU payments and countries that are net recipients.

Barroso's qualities as a future Commission President has already been reiterated in his first major press conference in Brussels after his nomination. He is a formidable communicator -- not only in his native Portuguese but also in French, English and other Union languages. It is an asset which he will have to employ to the maximum over the coming years. This gift for advocacy will be in great demand in spearheading the campaign to ensure ratification of the agreed Constitutional Treaty.

The Portuguese Prime Minister has a wise head on his shoulder. He has already initiated the investing of new identities across the Atlantic. He has stated that 'a strong Europe is in America's interest' and that "the United States should take advantage of multilateral solutions." In this context, he has also underlined the need for Europe and the United States to work together in resolving outstanding issues like global terrorism development environment and trade.

Such an approach will be crucial in the coming years for developing nations in general and LDCs in particular. By the end of the year, the world will have completed another US presidential election and will also have an expanded EU with a new President of the European Commission. For the sake of stability and confidence building, the will have to work together to find acceptable solutions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and win WTO negotiations.

The developing world will now carefully follow the actions of Barroso, a former Maoist militant who once denouced capitalism and preached the dictatorship of the proletariat. He, of all persons will be expected to understand the importance of poverty reduction and positive discrimination in support of the LDC group of countries.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary, Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the European Institutions in the EU.