Closeup Japan
A second breakthrough in North Korea unlikely for Koizumi
Monzurul Huq writes from Tokyo
The announcement didn't come as a total surprise as factual details coupled with rumours were abound in recent days that the inner circle of the Japanese government was getting ready for another summit between the leaders of Japan and North Korea. Horse-trading within the ruling camp between the known conservatives and those belonging to liberal groups also had given clear indication that the Japanese government was taking the matter of a possible highest level visit to North Korea quite seriously. A day before the announcement, the Secretary General of the main ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Shinzo Abe, a well known hawk within the ruling camp, had asked the government to be cautious about any summit meeting with the North Korean leadership. Like all die-hard conservatives elsewhere, Abe also doesn't want his opponents find any easy opening at all that might allow them to gain upper hand despite necessary precautions. Hence for him, avoiding any direct contact with the Pyongyang leadership might have been the most ideal of all solutions, as this would increase pressure on a government, which, according to general conservative assessment, is already isolated, cornered and on the verge of collapsing.But despite such opposition within the ruling group of Japan, it has been officially announced on Friday that the Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will visit North Korea on May 22 to hold talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Ill on the crucial issue of abduction of Japanese nationals. This will be Koizumi's second visit to the country in less than two years and also second ever to Pyongyang by any Japanese prime minister. In recent days officials from two countries were involved in a series of discussions in Beijing and the development suggests there has been progress in the negotiation where the Japanese side was demanding that North Korea send the families of five repatriated abduction victims to Japan. During a meeting earlier this month in Beijing, Japanese officials hinted that Koizumi might make a second daylong trip to Pyongyang to make a breakthrough on the issue of families of five abducted Japanese nationals who were repatriated soon after his first visit in September 2002. North Korean officials responded by saying that they would refer the idea back to Pyongyang. The announcement of the visit thus indicates a confirmation that the leadership in Pyongyang has also assessed positively the Japanese proposal and are now willing to make all possible gains by opening the door for the Japanese prime minister to pay his second visit in 20 months. As both sides are poised to reap maximum benefits out of Koizumi's forthcoming trip to Pyongyang, how far Japan can gain in real term remains doubtful. The second talks between Koizumi and Kim are also expected to reactivate the stalled normalisation negotiations between the two countries. But here too, much would depend on the progress in the abduction issue. Japan is calling on North Korea to send the families of five repatriated abducted citizens and also to provide more information on other Japanese who Pyongyang claims have died and those who remain unaccounted for. North Korea, on the other hand, has maintained that the five went to Japan on a short visit and are being held now against their wishes. They also demand that if Tokyo is willing to prove the assertion wrong, what the country needs is to send them to Pyongyang to confirm their willingness before accompanying their family members back to Japan. The North Korean side also claimed that the questions about other abducted Japanese citizens have long been settled as they have provided information related to their death. As the positions being taken by the two sides contrast sharply, there are enough indications that the Japanese prime minister might find Pyongyang less hospitable this time compared to what he encountered in September 2002. During his first trip, North Korean officials admitted agents working for Pyongyang abducted or lured to North Korea 13 Japanese in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and eight of them have died. The five others were allowed to go to Japan on a two-week trip in October 2002, where irony of fate has turned them into pawns of a new political game being played by conservative and nationalist elements in Japan. Until quite recently Pyongyang was accusing Japan of breaking a promise to return the five after a brief homecoming and was insisting that they first go back to North Korea before any discussion could be started on the fate of the family members. Tokyo demanded unconditional departure of their family members. It seems both sides have given up a bit of their respective positions in order to break the stalemate. But what in real term Koizumi can gain out of the visit still remains doubtful as the family reunion might also expose new stumbling blocks difficult to overcome. As the husband of one of the five Japanese nationals is a US military deserter still wanted by the American authorities, to find an easy solution to the problem might not be that easy at all. Sources within the Japanese officials are suggesting the possible resumption of humanitarian assistance to North Korea if the family members are allowed to leave. Koizumi is most likely eyeing on the possibility of accompanying at least some of the family members on his return flight from Pyongyang. If that much he can achieve, this would no doubt give him a publicity boost that he is desperately in need of after a series of pension fund scandal has weakened the image of his government. North Korea, on the other hand, would also be happy if helping the Japanese prime minister to mend the shattered image of his administration opens the door for generous financial assistance at the time of need. Any other progress right now seems to be of secondary interest for both sides of the forthcoming summit.
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