Though CPI(M) General Secretary Harikishen Singh Surjeet thought that Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajbadi Party (SP) would join the government, some leaders of both the Congress and SP who are rivals in Uttar Pradesh are not convinced of long term gains if the two parties were to join hands at the centre. Besides Rahul Gandhi's recent accusation that SP was secretly helping BJP was not well received by Mulayam Singh. But Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati's unilateral support extended to Sonia Gandhi could prevent Mulayam Singh from driving a hard bargain with the Congress in his negotiations for inclusion of his party in the union cabinet. SP, however, has said publicly that, as of now, the party has not been asked by the Congress to join the cabinet as the Congress does not need SP's support given her own and alliance's strength coupled with the 64 members of the Left Front which more than makes up the simple majority required for forming a cabinet.

Former prime minister VP Singh would like parties like SP, BSP and all others to support a Congress-led government because he sees the elections as a fight between communal and secular forces in which the latter has won, and the victory was essential for the preservation of the secular character of the Indian Constitution and the unity of the country. The Left Front has not as yet decided upon the form of their support to a Congress-led government which would be decided by the CPI and CPI(M) parties' central committee and the politburo. One should not, however, gloss over the contradictions between the Congress and CPI(M) in West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala. Besides, the left parties given their best performance ever in a national election, is likely to insist on a pro-poor economic agenda and the dissolution of Arun Shourie's policy of disinvestment.

The decimation of Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and SM Krishna in Karnataka has proved that though they could put Bangalore and Hyderabad on the world map for their IT excellence, the neglect felt by the rural voters was ultimately paid back in their dismissal from governance. Though Congress may regain governance in Karnataka due to support by former prime minister Devi Gouda's party, the lesson to be learnt is that India's majority of the electorate still live in villages, and can be ignored only at the peril of the rulers.

The Hindustan Times in a pre-election overview pointed out a very important factor that has emerged in the recent Indian politics. The paper wrote that alliances at the national level have brought India to a generation of politics where the regional players are now firmly in the saddle. Neither the BJP, considered "untouchable" a decade ago, nor the Congress, which in its heyday would never have imagined contesting just four seats in Bihar because Laloo Prasad Yadav would not allow more, can call the shots easily now. The rout of Chandrababu in Andhra Pradesh and Jayalalita in Tamil Nadu (she drew blank in the Lok Sabha elections) considerably affected BJP's fortune. Akali Dal in Punjab (perhaps due to anti-incumbency factor) and Navin Patnaik in Orissa could deliver goods to the BJP. The party, however, retained its hold in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh (where BJP swept the polls in the state elections in December prompting the party to call for early elections) and won more than half of the Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra. But contrary to the claims of Narendra Modi, a true representative of the reactionary Sangh Parivar, Gujarat was not delivered to BJP. In Delhi, Sheila Dixit once again proved her mettle by delivering six (one for her son) of the seven Lok Sabha seats to the Congress. The Congress alliance also did well in Hariyana, Assam, Bihar, and Jharkhand. In embattled Jammu and Kashmir, Congress won four seats.

Sonia Gandhi campaigned with dignity though her foreign origin issue was repeatedly raised by BJP throughout the election campaign, sometimes in rather inelegant terms. But the very fact that despite BJP's warning that a foreigner should not be allowed to become prime minister of India the voters' choice of Congress has given her electoral legitimacy. The left leaders are already on record having said that Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin is not an issue, and Joyti Basu has taken to a rather legal interpretation by saying that since she is an Indian national there should not be any bar to her becoming prime minister. After all, India does not have the American law that the president has to be native born. Nor is it an issue with DMK's Karunanidhi. NCP's Sharad Pawar, who left Congress on this issue several years back, has skirted a direct response on the foreign origin issue saying that he has to consult his party's other leaders before making a decision. But then NCP has only nine MPs and Pawar will need Congress in the coming state elections in Maharashtra. In a different context, Sharad Pawar would have made an excellent candidate for the premiership with much greater acceptability than Dr. Manmohan Singh (a Sikh) or Pranab Mukherjee who has a weak political base in West Bengal.

The Congress party is solidly behind Sonia Gandhi and would like her to be the next prime minister. It is difficult to say how much the Nehru/Gandhi charisma shaped the overall electoral verdict. Indian politics is caste-ridden where the caste of the candidate plays a great role in his/her election.

Bollywood attraction is another factor. Actors Sunil Dutt (Congress), Raj Babbar (SP), Dharmendra (BJP), Vinod Khanna (BJP), Govinda (Congress), and Jaya Pradha (SP) will adorn the next Lok Sabha. In the past, MGR ruled Tamil Nadu, now in the hands of his erstwhile heroine Jayalalita, while NTR was elected chief minister of Andhra Pradesh. The point made here is that the known faces from the entertainment world appear to have some appeal to the voters. How else would one explain Govinda's victory over Ram Nayek, a veteran politician and a minister in Vajpayee cabinet?

No single factor can explain the defeat of the BJP which obviously had overestimated the "feel good" factor and sweeping wins in the state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. If Naidu lost in Andhra Pradesh because of his alleged neglect of the poor, Navin Patnaik (son of Biju Patnaik) won in Orissa because of reported good governance. And Laloo Prasad Yadav continues to win in Bihar (where wife Ravri Devi is chief minister) despite reported bad governance and Bihar's reputation as one of the most lawless states in India.

If ultimately Sonia Gandhi becomes prime minister, in order to avoid the fate of six United Front prime ministers in five years, she will have to tailor her reform programmes to meet the demands of her coalition partners, particularly from the Left Front. Dr. Manmohan Singh, should he become Finance Minister, may have to abandon or amend Arun Shourie's disinvestment policy. Already Bombay stock market is jittery due to current political uncertainty and lot of ONGC's shares have been offloaded. But situation is expected to calm down once the political scene becomes clearer and stable. Besides, Indian stock market like bourses in emerging economies behave more in tune with global trend than local political conditions. On foreign affairs, Congress-led government is unlikely to make any sharp changes. On Indo-Pak relations, Sonia Gandhi has already announced that Congress-led government will stay the course. One hopes that the next government will continue India's friendly relations with her neighbours and not be influenced by Promethean actions now habitually being carried out by the lone superpower in the world.

In the whole drama, the sad but inevitable part is the exit of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, a school master's son from Gwalior who rose to be one of the finest prime ministers of India. Though he will remain the leader of the opposition, it is doubtful (as voiced by Promod Mahajan) that Vajpayee will agree to remain as opposition leader for five years after having served India three times as prime minister. In a eulogy to Vajpayee, Vir Sangvi wrote in the Hindustan Times, "He is the first non-Congress prime minister whose government did not fall before the end of his term. He is the man who made BJP electable. And he is the first prime minister who showed that coalition politics could not only work in India, but were probably the only means of ensuring stability." Vajpayee's tenure also saw India becoming a software superpower. Besides, he always kept a distance from the Sangh Parivar. Perhaps the greatest blemish of the Vajpayee legacy will remain the Gujarat riot when Narendra Modi was allowed passage to fascism through Vajpayee's reluctance to punish the guilty. One hopes with the ideological change in the governance in India that the wronged will finally get their day in court.