The Kofi Annan plan in short is :a) Preserve equilibrium between the Turkish and Greek communities; b) It foresees creation of the United Republic of Cyprus run by Presidential College of six members -- 4 Greeks and 2 Turks. The position of President, who will be the head of state, will rotate and for 40 months there will be a Greek to be followed by a Turk for 20 months. The President and the Vice President who will be from the two communities will travel together to the European Union summits.; c) The present territory of Northern (Turkish) Cyprus will be reduced from its present 36% to 29%; d) Troops -- upto 2011 will be maintained by Turkey and Greece will maintain 6000 troops. At the end of the present arrangement Greece will maintain 950 and Turkey 650 troops.

The reaction of the two sides, that is Turkey and Greece is remarkable. Turkey has been enthusiastic of the Annan Plan and has embraced it wholeheartedly. In an emotional appeal to his Greek counterpart, newly elected Prime Minister Karamanlis, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayiip Erdogan stated, "I would like to call on the Greek and Turkish sides, let's walk together on the road of peace that started here in Buergenstock and let's take the necessary steps together. I started path with goodwill and of course we would like to achieve result". Kofi Annan characterised his plan as a "victory for all sides".

Turkish Cypriots in the north and the Greek Cypriots in the south will vote separately to determine if they want a united Cyprus or a divided Cyprus. In the event of a positive vote on 24 April, Cyprus will join the powerful European Union on 1 May 2004.The EU is slated to expand to 25 members with the inclusion of 10 new member states mainly from Eastern Europe. In the event of a negative vote the consequences will be far reaching and difficult to predict at this stage. It would mean that South Cyprus would join the EU and North Cyprus would have an unenviable existence as an adjunct of Turkey. The situation will be further complicated by the fact that 40,000 Turkish troops will be stationed in Northern Cyprus.

In his closing address UN Secretary General Kofi Annan stated, "I hope for a reunited Cyprus to accede to the European Union on May 1. The time for negotiations and consultations is over. The time for decision and action has arrived. The choice is not between this settlement and some other magical or mythical solution. The choice is between this settlement and no settlement".

The most remarkable aspect of the Annan Plan is no doubt the Turkish agreement to virtually withdraw her troops from the island. It is worth recalling that those troops went to Northern Cyprus in 1974, when following a military coup in Greece, the Greek Colonels attempted to swallow the whole of Cyprus in utter disregard of the Agreement of 1960. Through this agreement the British colonial masters agreed to grant independence to the island and Cyprus became a member of the UN. Cyprus became a Federation with rights reserved for the two communities. I was working in the Pakistan Mission to the UN in the sixties and the Turkish Cypriots and the Greek Cypriots were at daggers drawn. The reason that the British plan did not work was that both the Turkish Cypriots and the Greek Cypriots looked to Ankara and Athens and the ties of the mother countries were very strong indeed. The Turkish troops that landed in 1974 in Northern Cyprus by virtue of Turkey's status as a guarantor of 1960 Agreement has been providing security to the ethnic Turks on the island.

Much water has flown down the Mediterranean since then. The most meaningful change has taken place with the arrival of the EU on the scene. The ties between the Turks and the Greeks with their mother countries have consequently slackened. The islanders have fixed their gaze on the vast territory of the EU with lucrative economic prospects. There was a referendum in the recent past on Turkish Cyprus and it turned out into a vote of confidence on Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktash, who has all along taken a hard line in negotiations with his Greek counterparts. Indeed he is reported to have rejected the Annan Plan.

Prior to the current negotiations extensive consultations took place in New York under the aegis of the Secretary General Kofi Annan. Sensing that the parties might get bogged down in their own rhetorics, the parties had handed down the last word to Kofi Annan. He was given the authority to put the entire question to referendum. That is what he has done by fixing the date on 24 April.

It is going to be a historic day for the 800,000 inhabitants of the island. They will decide if they wish to remain a "United Republic of Cyprus" and join the powerful European Union or land into total uncertainty through a negative vote. The referendum is also going to snap the umbilical cord between Nicosia and Ankara and Athens. From 1 May 2004 Cyprus may have to learn to live by herself.

What about Turkish membership of the EU, which has been hanging fire since long? Among the EU members France and Germany are acknowledged as leaders. Germany seems to have veered round to support Turkish membership of the EU. France seems to keeping her cards close to her chest. Turkey has through decades of unflagging campaigning managed to get a number of countries on her side, mainly the Mediterranean ones. In the Helsinki Summit a little over two years ago, Turkey was promised definite membership. Turkey has been pushing hard for a date to start negotiations in view of her membership. Turkey has taken sweeping steps to bring her at par and better with other member states. She has brought about significant changes in her human rights record.

Although EU has been careful not to establish a link between EU membership and troops withdrawal from Cyprus, the unstated fact is that the EU has driven hard to establish that link. Now that Turkey has gone the extra mile by promising withdrawal of troops and thus leaving the settlement in the hands of the islanders, EU will be hard put to find obstacles to Turkish membership of the EU.

Close on the heels of a Cyprus settlement we may witness dramatic inclusion of a first Muslim country in the EU -- so far a Christian club.

Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador.