April 30
Imtiaz Ahmed, On e-mail
When Abdul Jalil, the secretary general of the Awami League, declared that the last day of the government would be 30th April, people did not pay much attention to it. Our politicians have a tradition of speaking things not carrying much sense. However, when he was found repeating his prophecy and the opposition leader was seen endorsing it, it was not limited to a mere political stunt. Unfortunately, the political history of our country is full of unexpected events and some people fear that the 30 April ultimatum may have links with some unprecedented things.Although democracy has its own method of changing a government, a movement for ousting the government (even if it is a democratically elected one) is not rare in the country. However, giving a deadline for it and sticking to it so confidently is something new. The question that is hovering in the minds of the countrymen is how the Awami League will achieve its target of ousting the government within only one month? I have tried to analyse some solution scenarios in the following paragraphs. The most democratic means of ousting the government will be through an impeachment move in parliament against the ruling coalition. However, it does not seem that the Awami League has any such plan. The ruling coalition has an overwhelming majority in parliament and such a move will yield no results. The opposition will probably call for lengthy hartals and arrange more violent agitation. However, it is very unlikely that the government will resign or will be overthrown by a few days of hartals or a few militant rallies. The Awami League observed such programmes during 1992-96 from a stronger position as the Jamaat was with them at that time, but failed to make the government resign before completion of its term. This time the ruling party seems to be more mature in tackling violent agitation. Thus this method is unlikely to produce the desired results for the opposition. The opposition may have some other plan which it has not yet made public. People would like to know what this plan is. Sure enough , it cannot be a democratic plan . Some people are reluctant to take this ultimatum that seriously. According to them it is a political game of Abdul Jalil for generating momentum to anti-government agitation. He was not very successful in organising the party and bringing out the leaders and activists from the deep frustration that they were in as a result of the 2001 election debacle. He gave the ultimatum, acted as a fortune-teller and the media helped to establish its seriousness. It may be true as it has yielded some success in generating some hope of toppling the government among AL activists and attracting the political 'extras' to join hands with the Awami League in the 'oust government' movement. Mysteriously, the 'Third Force' initiative of former president B Chowdhury coincided with the announcement of the deadline. Is there anything to be surmised from it? I have a highly optimistic colleague who thinks that nothing will happen. After a relatively warmer month of April, on the first day of May, Abdul Jalil will respond to the questions of journalists by saying, "Did I say April 2004?".
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