One of the evils of axis identified by the US -- sort of world's moral arbiter -- has already been taken care of: the preemption of a nuclear Iran is by all indication now on board. Iran's decision to open up its nuclear facilities to IAEA inspections presents challenge to the weapon inspectors, who might find it difficult to prove that the country has a covert weapons programme.

Yet after a long calibrated silence the Iranian government announced in the third week of December last that it would allow inspectors of IAEA unfettered access to the country's nuclear facilities. Was it then an after thought of Gadaffi's capitulation? However, at Khatami's instance, a non-proliferation treaty protocol had been promptly signed by Ali Akbar Salehi, Iranian representative to the IAEA at its HQ in Vienna and was hailed as significant breakthrough. The agreement required Iran to submit intrusive and unannounced inspections of the nuclear complexes and research facilities.

In November, the IAEA had approved a resolution condemning Iran for engaging in secret nuclear activities. According to IAEA chief El Baradei, strong message which said that "future breaches will not be tolerated" was sent to Tehran. Although the agreement with the IAEA has to be ratified by the Iranian parliament it has already the approval of President Khatami and crucially that of the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeni. Far from being cowered however the prominent hard-liners who owe allegiance to Khomeni are stiffly opposed to any concessions to the West on nuclear issue particularly in the light of the behaviour of IAEA inspectors in neighbouring Iraq where they used inspections as a pretext to espionage on behalf of the United States. It is no secret that the influential neo-conservatives in Washington would like to see nothing better than the demise of Iran's Islamic revolution.

In the meantime in post 9/11 milieu Iran's predicaments are indeed extraordinary. In the wake Gulf War II the US virtually surrounded Iran. American troops were stationed virtually in all the neighbouring countries. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has been demanding military action against Tehran on the plea that Israel's security was endangered by Iran's alleged nuclear expertise. Israel declared Iran enemy number one in 1990s. Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz issued public warning in late December that his country was thinking in terms of launching an attack to destroy Iran's nuclear capability.

Meir Daggan, Israel's head of external intelligence told the parliamentarians in November last that Iran's nuclear programme posed the biggest threat to Israel since its creation in 1948. There is speculation that once the Bushehr reactor is ready to be loaded with nuclear fuel in the middle of 2004 the US may tacitly give its ally Israel the go-ahead to attack Iran. Obviously, such an attack would irreparably weaken Iran and help preserve Israel's nuclear monopoly in West Asian region. With American approval, it may be recalled, Israel had targeted Iraq's main nuclear facility at Osirak in the early 1980s. Nevertheless, both Iraq and Iran are signatories to the NPT which allows member-countries to develop nuclear power for peaceful purpose.

Also otherwise, according to some commentators Iran has a right to develop its own nuclear deterrent especially in view of the deteriorating security situation in the region. Iran has already developed Shahab-3 nuclear-capable missile with the ability of hitting target within a range of 1350 km, bringing both West and central Asia in its ambit. Iran's main nuclear processing centre at Bushehr is being completed by Russia and no amount of arm-twisting by Bush administration on Russian government could dissuade it from its firm commitment now formalised bilaterally under a $800 deal to complete the reactor.

Bushehr plant is an old Iranian dream and formed part of Iran of imperial era when it set its sight to become the policeman of the Gulf: 85 per cent of Bushehr plant had been completed before the Islamic revolution of Iran in 1979. It was thoroughly ravaged by eight years of Iran-Iraq war. Moscow stepped into the picture as it had begun to share similar concern with Tehran about the dramatic expansion of American influence in their backyard.

With regard to present stand off over Iran's nukes, notwithstanding the US' multi-pronged moves against Iran the latter may be the beneficiary of a divided house. The Bush administration pressuring 35-nation IAEA board calling for most severe action against Iran for continuing with its nuclear programme may finally get the support of only four nation in current UNSC in its bid to impose international sanction on Iran. None of the other permanent members including Britain would like to support hard-line stance taken by Bush administration. The EU which has strong economic ties with Iran has answered Tehran that if it complies with IAEA guideline, Iran would be given access to modern nuclear technology and supplies from countries such as France, Germany and UK. Given the equation emerging from fast changing nuclear polities of Iran the planned nuclear monopoly for Israel may still be a distant dream.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.