The biggest sulk of India is surely Mamata Banerjee. It is tempting to say that there is something congenitally wrong with her, but that might be too harsh. But nothing is ever good enough for her, and by the time she reconciles her extraordinary ego to reality, the best that was on offer has also receded. Instead of using office to consolidate her support, she has wasted years because of a hang-up over the railways portfolio. Her rationale for such an obsession indicates how far out of the loop she is (and that is probably as good a description of loopy as you are going to get). She thinks railways is some kind of a Bengali inheritance because Mrs Indira Gandhi left the portfolio in Barkat Ghani Khan Choudhary's charge for years, and which the ageing stalwart used effectively as a cash crop for jobs to his constituents.

Mamata Didi doesn't get the fact that the nature of government has changed. Government has stopped being a social welfare outfit dedicated to creating unproductive jobs in the service of a distorted interpretation of socialism. In the last set of reshuffles Mamata Banerjee (her sulks are always plural, never singular) first objected to BJP interference over her status as the government's viceroy for Bengal, and then over her hereditary right to railways. Coal was not good enough for her. Such self-esteem is extraordinary for a woman who cannot win an election. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee is an indulgent bachelor when dealing with his women allies; he even forgave her lapse into adultery when she left the BJP for the Congress. Mamata Didi misconstrued indulgence for weakness. It is now dawning upon her that the Prime Minister can forgive a tantrum but does not like being bullied. Mamata Banerjee is the kind of ally who can give you ulcers when she is in a good mood. Vajpayee has had to appoint an ambassador to maintain relations with her, a job that has not as yet tired out the earnest George Fernandes. But for him Mamata Banerjee would have been in serious danger of being forgotten.

The message from this tortured relationship is that the BJP never shuts any door permanently, no matter how exasperating the provocation. But irrespective of how wide that door may be, I doubt if it is going to have sufficient space for the re-entry of the other great feminine BJP hope, Mayawati. Not too long ago, BJP strategists were dreaming of an electoral sweep in Uttar Pradesh. On paper the alliance with the BSP was too good to be true. There was no overlap in the vote banks, which were sufficiently transferable to leave the competition behind. The BJP's deal was in line with its belief that allies could keep the provinces as long they left the Centre to the BJP. But while power is famous for being a good adhesive, it can also become abrasive in rough hands. Over the years Mayawati has shown the capacity to get votes, as well as a penchant for hara-kiri. All you have to do is to perch her comfortably in power and she will devise a way to fly off on a suicide mission.

She enjoys power, but she does not relish responsibility. Stories abound indicating that she is uncomfortable with both the detail and the language of modern governance. Some complex urges her to pretend that she can understand spoken English perfectly, when honesty would have served her far better. Apparently at one meeting with World Bank officials, each time the Bank worthy advised a healthier fiscal policy, she thought he meant a healthier physical policy, and responded that she was doing a great deal to build sports facilities. It is not essential for a chief minister to be an economist (although it helps to know the difference between fiscal and physical). But because Mayawati loves power, she will not depute and get out of the way. Those who know how to rule, understand how to carefully measure the distance from decision-making (Vajpayee is a minimalist). Mayawati's propensity to be everywhere led her to the scandalous shopping corridor behind the Taj; and her conviction that conspirators were hounding her led her to confrontation. In this last she might have been right; conspiracy comes naturally to UP's BJP leaders. The dynamics of the relationship were insupportable. This was a marriage made in a shopkeeper's godown. The BJP has paid a huge price for its fantasies, losing its credibility in what might be called its home state. The party is not worth a dozen seats in UP just now. This belly-up has been a catastrophe for the BJP, and scarred Mayawati as well.

The BJP's third investment in a lady of political means has been quieter. In fairness, the two are still wooing each other, and warily. But it is apparent that the BJP would like to go into the next elections with Jayalalitha as its partner in Tamil Nadu. Heaven knows if it can be called the curse of the BJP or not, but the Supreme Leader of Chennai was humming along pretty well, picking up praise for tackling government servants with aplomb, decimating a DMK spiked by old age and dynasty, and sending hints that if the next Parliament was hung, she might have enough MPs to make a bid for the top job. Then she loses it. Taking on the Hindu was bad enough. To do it over such an innocuous article was not despotic, it was merely stupid.

Of the three carefully planned electoral bets, one has turned into ashes; a second does not seem worth the effort; and the third has developed a leak before it has matured. Still, those who underestimate Jayalalitha do so to their cost. L.K. Advani, who is the ranking mathematician of Indian politics, took care to be friendly in public with Ms Jayalalitha. Mr Advani was not going to let a burst of foolishness scuttle a potential alliance.

The BJP's bad luck with women extends to those within. The party took a very early decision when it named Uma Bharti, the coy saffronite, and Vasundhara Raje, the princess-in-waiting, as its nominees for chief minister in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. There was a smug air of nomination about the decision, as if the elections had already been won. Ever since, it has been downhill. The two went into campaign mode long before the season started, and may have peaked too early. Uma Bharti's advantage is that no matter how far she slips, she could still end up ahead. But her compatriot in Rajasthan has not been so lucky, largely because of some excellent position play by Ashok Gehlot, who has made his ordinary image an extraordinary strength. The most astute political strategists have failed to notice that there is a continuing democratisation of the electoral process. The age of glamour is crumbling. The voter now wants leaders who talk like him, look like him, and communicate with him; there is decreasing sympathy for dynasts who are doing the voter a favour by leaving their palaces for social service.

But the most startling fact about Uma and Vasu is how quickly they betrayed their political immaturity. At the first sign of pressure, both bolted. Both made a bid for a second constituency, signalling an utter lack of confidence in themselves and their party. They had to be spanked back into line, but the damage was done. When the spotlight is on you, it is not your face that gets illuminated but your nerves.

The BJP has been much luckier with men. Chandrababu Naidu was among the first friends and has not wavered. He has called for early elections after ensuring that his alliance with the BJP is in place. There is more than one reason why he wants February elections, but he certainly expects the BJP to go for a national election then as well. Only then will the Vajpayee factor help him. Incidentally, the BJP would have brought in at least three of the four Assemblies if it had called for a general election on December 1. The Vajpayee factor (he is streets ahead of Sonia Gandhi in the opinion polls) would have compensated for the nervous mistakes of Uma Behen and Vasu Bhabhi (she is Rajasthan's sister-in-law, rather than daughter). Instead, BJP leaders are privately suggesting that they might end up losing three out of four states. The decisions are not in, but certainly nothing is certain anymore.

The ultimate irony should not escape either the BJP or the Congress. The only woman that the BJP can now rely on is Sonia Gandhi.

MJ Akbar is Chief Editor of the Asian Age.